More undergraduates than ever in NFL Draft?
The NFL's uncertain labor situation — with no salary cap in place for 2010, and a potential labor stoppage in 2011 — has many college players wondering what an uncapped year or a potential rookie wage scale could mean for them.
It also seems to have more juniors than ever thinking about whether to make an early move to the NFL.
"We're looking at that and we're talking to the right people about it. And we don't know, because they don't know," says Washington coach Steve Sarkisian, who went through the early-entry process with several Southern Cal stars before taking the Huskies job. He investigated the issue for his current quarterback, junior Jake Locker, who chose to stay in school despite the likelihood he'd be a high draft pick in April.
"That's the hard part. They've been talking about that thing for about five or six years now. That was one of the ploys to try to get (Matt) Leinart to come out early, that some of the agents were using. So that was how many years ago now, and they are still talking about it• So I don't know."
Nobody knows much of anything. An uncapped season next year, the first since 1993, will modify restrictions on free agency, but probably won't have much effect on rookies. But if there's no pro football in 2011, that would be devastating. The draft itself could disappear.
So, many player agents are projecting a record influx of eligible underclassmen into the 2010 draft. The most to enter early was 70 in 2008 and some agents believe close to 100 will declare in January. Those players have until Jan. 15 to decide, then have 72 hours to withdraw their names and retain college eligibility.
The NFL has made it easier for those players — who must be three years removed from senior year in high school — to be informed of their prospects. In 1994, the league, at the behest of the American Football Coaches Association, created the College Advisory Committee. Personnel evaluations from NFL clubs and scouting groups provided the collegians with opinions on where they might go in the draft, using five categores: as high as the first round; as high as the second; potentially in the third; not in the first three rounds; not at all.
Last year, 151 players were evaluated and 46 entered the draft, with only five not being selected.
Will the numbers jump this year, given the NFL labor landscape?
"I think that rumbling has been growing a little bit," Indianapolis Colts general manager Chris Polian says. "I think any time you are in a gray area, people can use that kind of lack of solid information or the lack of a solid plan to manipulate things to their benefit."
That unsureness plagues everyone, particularly players and agents.
"I know that the numbers are up even to this point," says agent Joe Linta, who represents, among others, Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco and center Matt Birk. "I think it stems from the media, the possibility of a work stoppage and more players understanding that there is no evidence to support that they will be picked higher if they stay."
Adds Peter Schaffer, whose clients include Joe Thomas and Hakeem Nicks:
"Every year, historically, there are a lot more juniors that inquire than will come out, and every year we say it will be a lot. This is unique due to the uncertainty of the (collective bargaining agreement) and what effects that is going to have on the rookie salaries moving forward.
"A lot of people talking to the juniors are saying you should come out, there will be some artificial constraint on the rookies. There are a lot of juniors potentially coming out who will never be a top-10 pick and agents are telling them, 'If you are a top-10 pick. ...' It's an issue. People will be using that to encourage juniors to come out and I don't think that is right. They must decide only on what is best for their family and career."
OK, so what is best?
The college players, who can't contact agents without losing their eligibility, often look to their coaches for advice. If a coach is honest, he'll temper his desire for a star to return for another season by offering a realistic evaluation of that player's pro prospects.
Georgia Tech coach Paul Johnson has two players, defensive end Derrick Morgan and running back Jonathan Dwyer, projected as top picks.
Johnson talked briefly with all his juniors who were contemplating entry into the draft. He also talked to personnel evaluators in the NFL about those players and came away believing only the really high selections would be affected by the labor situation.
"My big thing in talking to them was to sit down and try to give them a plan. Here's an outline. Here's a plan. Here's what needs to happen," Johnson says. "Have a plan of what you want to do and don't get talked into something."
Minnesota coach Tim Brewster thinks more players are seriously considering turning pro than ever due to the labor uncertainty.
"I think there's a possibility that it could influence some guys. We're talking about a lot of money," Brewster says. "We're still talking about guaranteed money. So the guys that are going to be first-round picks, I think the potential for them to leave is still going to be strong."
Brewster believes a rookie wage scale would be wise.
"That could possibly have an effect on a young guy deciding to stay in," he says. "And it's good because it's a situation in my mind that is out of whack when a rookie who has never played is making more money than an All-Pro who has played for 10 years. I think that's a step in the right direction."
The NFLPA clearly does not. Assistant executive director George Atallah doesn't even see it as a bargaining topic.
"It's still being discussed in a one-sided context," Atallah says, "and until the dynamics of that discussion change, for example (installing) a veteran retention program, there's nothing to talk about."
There's plenty for the undergraduates to talk about as they try to project into a very hazy future. Some insist that their readiness for the pros — or, more succintly, their having outgrown the college game — is the deciding factor. Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen and receiver Golden Tate have said as much.
Others, such as Locker and, before him, the likes of Tim Tebow and Patrick Willis, opted for one more year of college life.
But Locker is taking more of a chance by doing so because, as Polian notes, "I do think rookie pay needs to be modified. How that happens is above us, but I think it's a realistic scenario."
Also realistic is an influx of juniors into the NFL in 2010, guys weighing the uncertainty ahead and opting to move on now.
"I think those are factors playing into it," Schaffer says. "There are certain things that don't mesh with what you need and it's definitely a timing element. I hope all players are using all resources to make an informed decision."
Union challenges revenue-sharing cut
The NFL Players Association has challenged the league's right to eliminate a supplemental revenue-sharing program among the 32 teams.
NFLPA assistant executive director George Atallah confirmed Tuesday that the union sent a letter to an arbitrator disputing the league's right to unilaterally drop the revenue-sharing under the current collective bargaining agreement. The owners have opted out of that contract, which runs through next season, and negotiations are under way for a new CBA.
The league says the plan involved about $100 million of a $6.5 billion pot, while the union claims that number will be closer to $200 million in 2010. It is being cut because the 2010 season will not have a salary cup unless a new CBA is reached.
Atallah said the union has three concerns about the NFL's decision:
· It is a signal for proposed salary cap changes that may be forthcoming;
· The NFLPA wants to maintain as much revenue sharing under the CBA system to protect the small market teams;
· Where is the money going if it is taken out of this supplemental program?
The program the league plans to terminate involves the top 15 revenue teams placing funds into a pool from which many of the lower income clubs can draw. It does not include television money or box office revenues.
Nine franchises qualified to receive funds this year, although the league has not identified them. The supplemental revenue sharing for four years under the salary cap has totaled about $450 million.
"The core issue of the CBA is the allocation of revenue and costs between the clubs and players, not the allocation of revenue among the clubs," NFL spokesman Greg Aiello said. "The NFL clubs share 80 percent of their revenue, the most extensive revenue sharing by far in sports. We are simply going forward in the current CBA on the terms that the union approved in March of 2006. This is an attempt by the union to deflect attention from the core issue of the CBA."