Oh, 2012, how Wall Street misunderstood you
From John Paulson's call for a collapse in Europe to Morgan Stanley's warning that stocks would decline, Wall Street got little right in its prognosis for the year just ended.
Paulson, who manages $19 billion in hedge funds, said the euro would fall apart and bet against the region's debt. Morgan Stanley predicted the Standard & Poor's 500 Index would lose 7 percent and Credit Suisse Group AG foresaw wider swings in equity prices. All of them proved wrong last year and investors would have done better listening to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer Lloyd C. Blankfein, who said the real risk was being too pessimistic.
The ill-timed advice shows that even the largest banks and most-successful investors failed to anticipate how government actions would influence markets. Unprecedented central bank stimulus in the United States and Europe sparked a 16 percent gain in the S&P 500 including dividends, led to a 23 percent drop in the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, paid investors in Greek debt 78 percent and gave Treasuries a 2.2 percent return even after Warren Buffett called bonds “dangerous.”
“They paid too much attention to the fear du jour,” said Jeffrey Saut, who helps oversee about $350 billion as the chief investment strategist at Raymond James & Associates in St. Petersburg, Fla. “They were worrying about a dysfunctional government in the U.S. They were worried about the euro quake and the implosion of Greece and Portugal. Instead of looking at what's going on around them, they were letting these macro events cause fear to creep into the equation.”
The market value of global equities increased by about $6.5 trillion last year as the MSCI All-Country World Index returned 17 percent including dividends. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Market Sovereign Plus Index of government debt returned 4.5 percent.
While Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes show Treasuries of all maturities returned an average of 2.2 percent last year, including reinvested interest, an investor who bought what was then the benchmark 10-year note would have gained 4.01 percent after taxes, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Money managers who aim to beat markets lagged instead.
The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Hedge Fund Index, which tracks average performance in the $2.19 trillion industry, increased 1.6 percent last year through November. More than 65 percent of mutual funds benchmarked to the S&P 500 trailed the gauge in 2012, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The 50 stocks in the S&P 500 with the lowest analyst ratings at the end of 2011 posted an average return of 23 percent, outperforming the index by 7 percentage points, the data show.
Blankfein was more prescient. “I tend to be a little more positive than what I'm hearing from other people,” the 58-year- old CEO told Bloomberg Television in an April 25 interview. “One of the big risks that people have to contemplate is that things go right.”
Ten-year Treasury yields have climbed 0.52 percentage point from a July low to 1.91 percent, while the so-called VIX index of volatility is up 8.3 percent from last year's nadir. Greece's economy will contract 4 percent this year, the International Monetary Fund predicted in October, as euro membership prevents the country from boosting exports with a weaker currency.
Paulson, the founder of New York-based Paulson & Co., told clients in April he was wagering against European sovereign bonds and buying credit-default swaps on the region's debt. The contracts insure against default and increase in value when investor perceptions of the borrower's creditworthiness decline.
Citigroup Inc. economists led by Willem Buiter in London said in February the possibility Greece would leave the euro within 18 months had increased to 50 percent from between 25 to 30 percent. They raised the risk to 75 percent in May and by July to 90.
Greek bonds surged the most worldwide and the country stayed in the euro as the European Central Bank pledged a bigger rescue effort, German Chancellor Angela Merkel softened her stance on aid and Prime Minister Antonis Samaras delivered on austerity commitments in Athens.
Money managers who bet against the conviction of European leaders to hold together the 17-nation currency union missed out on some of the best investment opportunities as the euro strengthened about 9.4 percent from a July 24 low against the dollar, Germany's DAX Index of shares returned 29 percent for the year and credit-default swaps on Portugal dropped 644 basis points to 449.
“There really is only one ‘worst trade' and that is the ‘euro crisis' trade,” Michael Shaoul, chairman and chief executive officer of Marketfield Asset Management LLC in New York, wrote in a Dec. 31 e- mail.
Show commenting policy
TribLive commenting policy
You are solely responsible for your comments and by using TribLive.com you agree to our Terms of Service.
We moderate comments. Our goal is to provide substantive commentary for a general readership. By screening submissions, we provide a space where readers can share intelligent and informed commentary that enhances the quality of our news and information.
While most comments will be posted if they are on-topic and not abusive, moderating decisions are subjective. We will make them as carefully and consistently as we can. Because of the volume of reader comments, we cannot review individual moderation decisions with readers.
We value thoughtful comments representing a range of views that make their point quickly and politely. We make an effort to protect discussions from repeated comments either by the same reader or different readers.
We follow the same standards for taste as the daily newspaper. A few things we won't tolerate: personal attacks, obscenity, vulgarity, profanity (including expletives and letters followed by dashes), commercial promotion, impersonations, incoherence, proselytizing and SHOUTING. Don't include URLs to Web sites.
We do not edit comments. They are either approved or deleted. We reserve the right to edit a comment that is quoted or excerpted in an article. In this case, we may fix spelling and punctuation.
We welcome strong opinions and criticism of our work, but we don't want comments to become bogged down with discussions of our policies and we will moderate accordingly.
We appreciate it when readers and people quoted in articles or blog posts point out errors of fact or emphasis and will investigate all assertions. But these suggestions should be sent via e-mail. To avoid distracting other readers, we won't publish comments that suggest a correction. Instead, corrections will be made in a blog post or in an article.
- Earlier openings make Black Friday shopping easier for bargain-hunters
- Florida roommates find a career in playing video games on web channel Twitch
- Company seeks to reopen coal mine in Nottingham, Washington County
- Retailers court web customers with free shipping
- Holiday shoppers expected to spend conservatively
- Buyer’s remorse: Most mergers don’t work out for acquiring company
- Stock forecast for 2015: milder gains, more bumps
- Butler County firm Deep Well Services tackles tough gas wells
- Retailers that won’t open on Thanksgiving hope move pays off
- Test-tube tuna may be sea change
- State officials prompt UPMC, Highmark to go to mediation to resolve Medicare dispute