Spring economic growth of 2.5% fans fears
WASHINGTON — The economy grew at a 2.5 percent annual rate from April through June, an improvement from the first three months of the year. But economists are worried that growth may now be slowing.
The Commerce Department said on Thursday that its final look at economic growth in the spring was unchanged from a prior estimate made last month.
However, the components of growth were altered slightly.
Businesses added a bit less to their stockpiles, and exports did not grow as fast as previously thought. These downward revisions were balanced by slightly stronger spending by state and local governments.
Many analysts believe growth is slowing to a sluggish rate at or below 2 percent in the current quarter. Economists initially had hoped growth would improve in the second half of the year.
If economists are correct that economic activity slowed this summer, it would mark the third quarter in the past four that growth rates have been 2 percent or lower. Growth in the fourth quarter of 2012 nearly stalled out at a barely discernible 0.1 percent rate and then improved slightly to 1.1 percent growth in the January-March quarter.
The government initially estimated activity in the April-June quarter at a lackluster 1.7 percent, but a big narrowing of the trade deficit reflecting stronger export sales overseas helped boost growth to 2.5 percent in the government's second look.
The 2.5 percent figure held steady in the government's third and final look at the gross domestic product for the spring quarter. The GDP is the economy's total output of goods and services.
Economists had thought that growth would accelerate in the second half of the year behind steady hiring and fading impact from government spending cuts and higher taxes.
But early activity for the quarter has been discouraging. Consumers spent more cautiously in July as their income barely increased. The government spending cuts have weighed on defense spending and business investment. And higher mortgage rates threaten to slow a housing recovery that had been a solid contributor to growth in the first half of the year.
Even the job gains from earlier in the year appear to be slowing. Employers have added an average of just 155,000 jobs a month since April, down from an average of 205,000 for the first four months of the year.
Some economists worry that growth remains too weak to accelerate hiring, boost pay and encourage Americans to spend more.
Analysts are still hopeful that growth will pick up in 2014. In its revised forecast, the Federal Reserve last week projected that the economy would grow roughly 3 percent next year, up from about 2 percent to 2.3 percent this year.
Show commenting policy
TribLive commenting policy
You are solely responsible for your comments and by using TribLive.com you agree to our Terms of Service.
We moderate comments. Our goal is to provide substantive commentary for a general readership. By screening submissions, we provide a space where readers can share intelligent and informed commentary that enhances the quality of our news and information.
While most comments will be posted if they are on-topic and not abusive, moderating decisions are subjective. We will make them as carefully and consistently as we can. Because of the volume of reader comments, we cannot review individual moderation decisions with readers.
We value thoughtful comments representing a range of views that make their point quickly and politely. We make an effort to protect discussions from repeated comments either by the same reader or different readers.
We follow the same standards for taste as the daily newspaper. A few things we won't tolerate: personal attacks, obscenity, vulgarity, profanity (including expletives and letters followed by dashes), commercial promotion, impersonations, incoherence, proselytizing and SHOUTING. Don't include URLs to Web sites.
We do not edit comments. They are either approved or deleted. We reserve the right to edit a comment that is quoted or excerpted in an article. In this case, we may fix spelling and punctuation.
We welcome strong opinions and criticism of our work, but we don't want comments to become bogged down with discussions of our policies and we will moderate accordingly.
We appreciate it when readers and people quoted in articles or blog posts point out errors of fact or emphasis and will investigate all assertions. But these suggestions should be sent via e-mail. To avoid distracting other readers, we won't publish comments that suggest a correction. Instead, corrections will be made in a blog post or in an article.
- Healthy PA expands number of recipients but cuts benefits
- Gas drilling company withdraws application for forced pooling in Western Pennsylvania
- Hershey unwraps new corporate logo
- Dairy Queen victim of malware attack
- Trib 30 stock index gains 4.85% in August
- Consumer sentiment improves slightly in August
- Cadillac faces SUV challenge
- Google tests Project Wing drone delivery
- Fiat-Chrysler shares may hit market soon
- Young adults drive home rental trend in Western Pennsylvania
- UPMC to help China build private medical center to boost public care there