Minutes: Federal Reserve split on bond program
By The Associated Press
Published: Thursday, Oct. 10, 2013, 12:01 a.m.
WASHINGTON — Nearly every member of the Federal Reserve thought last month that the central bank should see more evidence that the economy was improving before slowing its bond purchases. But worries about whether a delay would confuse financial markets made the decision a “close call.”
Minutes of the Fed's Sept. 17 and 18 meetings released on Wednesday show that the Fed wrestled with the decision, even though the panel ended up voting 9-1 to keep the purchases at the current level of $85 billion a month.
The bond purchases are intended to keep long-term interest rates low to encourage more borrowing and spending.
According to the minutes, all members but one wanted to see more data before reducing the purchases. And several noted potential risks to the economy, including a job market that had weakened over the summer, higher interest rates and a looming budget impasse in Washington.
Still, some raised concerns that inaction would undermine the Fed's ability to communicate its next steps. Many economists had predicted some reduction in the purchases. And some Fed members made comments before the meeting that suggested such a move was likely.
“For several members, the various considerations made the decision to maintain an unchanged pace of asset purchases at this meeting a relatively close call,” the minutes stated.
Most members indicated that they could still reduce the purchases later this year and end them next year, based on a summary of their economic projections. But those forecasts were made before the budget impasse led to a partial government shutdown this month. Many economists now believe the Fed will continue the current level of bond purchases into next year.
The Fed released the minutes shortly before President Obama formally nominated Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve's vice chair, to replace Ben Bernanke as chairman. If confirmed by the Senate, Yellen would take over at a critical time for the economy and the Fed's policies.
A prolonged shutdown likely would slow economic growth further. And if Congress fails to raise the $16.7 trillion borrowing limit this month, the United States could default on its debt for the first time. That would push up interest rates, disrupt global financial markets and possibly push the nation's economy back into recession.
Analysts predict economic growth slowed in the July-September quarter to an annual rate of 2 percent or less. Many had thought that growth would accelerate in the final three months of the year to a rate above 2.5 percent. But with each day the government stays shuttered, growth is likely to weaken a little more.
The shutdown has delayed key economic reports, including the September employment report that was due last week. Without those reports, the Fed will have trouble getting a read on whether the economy and job market have made progress since it last met. That is another reason economists expect the Fed will wait until next year to slow its stimulus.
The Labor Department reported last week that unemployment benefits still are hovering near six-year lows. And average rates on fixed mortgages have fallen for three straight weeks to their lowest level in three months, in part because the Fed opted to continue buying bonds at its current pace.
Show commenting policy
TribLive commenting policy
You are solely responsible for your comments and by using TribLive.com you agree to our Terms of Service.
We moderate comments. Our goal is to provide substantive commentary for a general readership. By screening submissions, we provide a space where readers can share intelligent and informed commentary that enhances the quality of our news and information.
While most comments will be posted if they are on-topic and not abusive, moderating decisions are subjective. We will make them as carefully and consistently as we can. Because of the volume of reader comments, we cannot review individual moderation decisions with readers.
We value thoughtful comments representing a range of views that make their point quickly and politely. We make an effort to protect discussions from repeated comments either by the same reader or different readers.
We follow the same standards for taste as the daily newspaper. A few things we won't tolerate: personal attacks, obscenity, vulgarity, profanity (including expletives and letters followed by dashes), commercial promotion, impersonations, incoherence, proselytizing and SHOUTING. Don't include URLs to Web sites.
We do not edit comments. They are either approved or deleted. We reserve the right to edit a comment that is quoted or excerpted in an article. In this case, we may fix spelling and punctuation.
We welcome strong opinions and criticism of our work, but we don't want comments to become bogged down with discussions of our policies and we will moderate accordingly.
We appreciate it when readers and people quoted in articles or blog posts point out errors of fact or emphasis and will investigate all assertions. But these suggestions should be sent via e-mail. To avoid distracting other readers, we won't publish comments that suggest a correction. Instead, corrections will be made in a blog post or in an article.
- Lululemon to make changes in top brass
- PNC plans to do away with tellers
- With new composure, Nasdaq marches toward its dot-com peak
- Nestle cuts ties with farm over dairy cow abuse
- Wholesale stockpiles up 1.4% in October
- Barra breaks GM glass ceiling
- RBS group finance director to step down
- Poll: Women’s pay up, but so is negativity
- Education Management Corp. suit settled for $3.4 million
- Consol acquires drilling rights from Dominion
- Fab Universal disputes kiosk claims; will restate earnings