Sluggish growth elsewhere could infect healthy U.S. economy
NEW YORK — Just as the nation's economy is strengthening, other countries are threatening to drag it down.
Employers here are gaining jobs at the fastest pace since the late 1990s, and the economy finally looks ready to expand at a healthy rate. But sluggish growth in France, Italy, Russia, Brazil and China suggests that the old truism “When the U.S. sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold” may need to be flipped.
Maybe the rest of the world will sneeze this time, and the United States will get sick.
That's the view of David A. Levy, who oversees the Levy Forecast, a newsletter analyzing the economy that his family started in 1949 and one with an enviable record. Nearly a decade ago, the now 59-year-old economist warned that housing was a bubble set to burst, and that the damage would push the country into a recession so severe the Federal Reserve would have no choice but to slash short-term borrowing rates to their lowest levels ever to stimulate the economy. That's exactly what happened. Now, Levy says the United States is likely to fall into a recession next year triggered by downturns in other countries for the first time in modern history.
“The recession for the rest of the world ... will be worse than the last one,” says Levy, whose grandfather called the 1929 stock crash and whose father won praise over decades for anticipating turns in the business cycle, often against conventional wisdom.
Levy's forecast for a global recession is an extreme one, but worth considering given so much is riding on the dominant view that economies are healing. Investors have pushed U.S. stocks to record highs, and Fed estimates have the United States growing at an annual pace of at least 3 percent for the rest of the year and all of 2015. Investors have poured hundreds of millions of dollars into emerging market stock funds recently on hopes economic growth in those countries will pick up, not stall.
Worrisome signs are already out there. Unlike their American counterparts, European banks are still stuck with too many bad loans from the financial crisis. Business debt there is too high. And confidence is fleeting, as investors saw earlier this month when stocks sold off on worries over the stability of Portugal's largest bank.
In China and other emerging markets, the old problem of relying on indebted Americans to buy more of their goods each year and not selling enough to their own people means a glut of underused factories.
“The world hopes to ride on the coattails of the U.S. consumer,” said Eswar Prasad, an economist at Cornell University. “But the U.S. consumer isn't in a position to take on the burden.”
Emerging markets bounced back faster from the financial crisis than did rich countries, but Levy thinks a big reason for that has made things worse. Overseas companies plowed money into factories, machines and buildings used to make things on the assumption that exports, after snapping back from recession lows, would continue to grow at their prior pace. They have not — a big problem because companies had been investing too much to expand production before the crisis, too.
“You build factories and stores, and they can't pay for themselves,” said Levy, chairman of the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, a consulting firm. “Businesses can't generate profits, and they start to contract.”
Compared with such fragile economies, Levy said the United States is in decent shape. Like most economists, he's not worried about the nation's 2.9 percent drop in economic output in the first quarter, attributing it to harsh winter weather. He expects growth to return, but not for long, as a recession in either Europe or emerging markets spreads to the United States.
Levy says the United States is more vulnerable to troubles abroad than people realize. Exports contributed 14 percent of U.S. economic output last year, up from 9 percent in 2002. That sounds like a good development, but it makes the country more dependent on global growth, which, in turn, relies more on emerging markets. Those markets accounted for 50 percent of global output last year, up from 38 percent in 2002.
Levy predicts a U.S. recession will throw its housing recovery in reverse, and push home prices below the low in the last recession. He says panicked investors are likely to dump stocks and flood into U.S. Treasurys, a haven in troubled times, like never before. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite to its price, is likely to fall from 2.5 percent to less than 1 percent — an unprecedented low. In 2012, when investors feared a breakup of the euro-currency bloc, the 10-year yield fell to 1.4 percent.
His forecasts may seem a bit much, but Levy comes from a family with a good record of running against the crowd.
His grandfather, Jerome, didn't just call the Great Crash of 1929, he sold his stock and liquidated his wholesale goods business in anticipation of it. Just after World War II, when many experts thought the nation would fall into another depression, his father, Jay, accurately predicted a rapid expansion instead. In late 1999, his uncle, Leon Levy, predicted a new generation of wealthy would be laid low soon in a coming dot-com crash. Those stocks began their long dive a few months later.