Casualty List shoots up 71%
The stocks I selected for my Casualty List a year ago are up 70.9 percent in 12 months.
All four selections from last July were up:
•Western Digital Corp. (WDC), a disk drive maker that I own personally and for clients, gained more than 112 percent.
•TRW Automotive Holdings Corp. (TRW), which fits into an auto theme that I continue to believe in, returned 81 percent.
•Met Life Inc. (MET), a large insurer, was up 54 percent.
•Body Central Corp. (BODY), a clothing retailer, gained 36 percent.
By comparison, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index returned 20.3 percent. All figures are total returns, including reinvested dividends.
Obviously, I can't produce results that strong and consistent on a regular basis. But what the heck: Let's have a drink and celebrate.
The Casualty List is a list I compile at the end of each quarter. It contains stocks that have been beaten up and that I think can bounce back and excel during the coming 12 months.
Beginning in 2000, I have written 41 Casualty List columns, including the one you are reading today.
Twelve-month results can be calculated for 37 of those columns. The average total return has been 23.4 percent, compared with 7.8 percent for the S&P 500.
Of the 37 lists, 27 were profitable, and 24 beat the S&P 500.
Bear in mind that past performance doesn't predict future results. The performance of column selections is hypothetical and doesn't reflect transaction costs or taxes. And the results of column recommendations should never be confused with the results of actual portfolios I run for clients.
Now, it's time for some new Casualty List selections, featuring stocks that were punished — perhaps excessively — in the second quarter.
Lindsay Corp. in Omaha makes irrigation equipment. The company is expected to report record earnings of $5.56 a share in its current fiscal year, which ends in August. But analysts expect earnings to tail off a bit in fiscal 2014 because farmers seem likely to order a bit less equipment.
In that sense, Lindsay is untimely. But in terms of valuation, it is very timely. It now sells for 14 times earnings, about half of the average multiple for the past decade, which was 29.
Lindsay is a stock I have always liked, but most of the time, it is too expensive for me. Last quarter's decline of 15 percent in the second quarter brings it back into my buying range.
Several refining stocks were smacked down 15 percent or more during the second quarter, and I like most of them at current prices. I will recommend Holly Frontier Corp. (HFC) of Dallas. At $43, it sells for only five times recent earnings and seven times analysts' estimate of 2013 earnings.
Refiners will never have steady earnings like Kellogg Co. or Procter & Gamble Co., but Holly usually manages to be quite profitable. Last year, it earned 32 percent on stockholders' equity, which is excellent. In the past eight years, it has earned 20 percent on equity or better six times.
Several copper companies also took it on the chin. Copper is one of the most economically sensitive of all commodities. The copper group tanked on evidence of slower growth in China and jitters about the economy in the United States, where the Federal Reserve seems about to become less accommodative.
Well, copper producers are cyclical all right. But their swings are nothing compared to the swings in investors' sentiment about them. Right now, I think investors have gone overboard on the pessimistic side.
One copper company that I like is Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX). It is trading at nine times earnings and offers a dividend yield of 4.5 percent. (One of my clients owns Freeport-McMoRan shares.)
My fourth and final selection this time is an off-the-beaten-path name, Myr Group Inc. (MYRG). The Rolling Meadows, Ill., company specializes in electrical transmission and distribution. Myr managed to go public in 2008 in the midst of the financial crisis. The stock showed some gains in 2008-09, but it has been sleepy for three and a half years now.
Myr Group is debt-free, a quality I like. It sells for moderate valuations — 12 times earnings and 0.4 times revenue — despite a respectable return on stockholders' equity of 14 percent last year. It fell 21 percent in the second quarter, on news of disappointing sales, but I suspect the reaction was overdone.
Buying good companies on bad news is one of the best ways to make money in the stock market. That is exactly that the Casualty List tries to do.
John Dorfman is chairman of Thunderstorm Capital LLC in Boston. He can be reached at email@example.com.
Show commenting policy
TribLive commenting policy
You are solely responsible for your comments and by using TribLive.com you agree to our Terms of Service.
We moderate comments. Our goal is to provide substantive commentary for a general readership. By screening submissions, we provide a space where readers can share intelligent and informed commentary that enhances the quality of our news and information.
While most comments will be posted if they are on-topic and not abusive, moderating decisions are subjective. We will make them as carefully and consistently as we can. Because of the volume of reader comments, we cannot review individual moderation decisions with readers.
We value thoughtful comments representing a range of views that make their point quickly and politely. We make an effort to protect discussions from repeated comments either by the same reader or different readers.
We follow the same standards for taste as the daily newspaper. A few things we won't tolerate: personal attacks, obscenity, vulgarity, profanity (including expletives and letters followed by dashes), commercial promotion, impersonations, incoherence, proselytizing and SHOUTING. Don't include URLs to Web sites.
We do not edit comments. They are either approved or deleted. We reserve the right to edit a comment that is quoted or excerpted in an article. In this case, we may fix spelling and punctuation.
We welcome strong opinions and criticism of our work, but we don't want comments to become bogged down with discussions of our policies and we will moderate accordingly.
We appreciate it when readers and people quoted in articles or blog posts point out errors of fact or emphasis and will investigate all assertions. But these suggestions should be sent via e-mail. To avoid distracting other readers, we won't publish comments that suggest a correction. Instead, corrections will be made in a blog post or in an article.
- Rain postpones Pirates-Cubs game
- Steelers defensive end Tuitt shifts into high gear
- Rossi: Pirates foolish to bet on Burnett return
- Perfect storm rains heroin, pain pills onto Mon Valley
- Thirsty pit bull turned on Arnold neighbors
- Dorfman: Sane Portfolio XIV features chickens, tires, diesel engines, airlines
- Steelers’ Mitchell taking cautious approach about dealing with injuries
- Cops: North Charleroi home invasion suspect IDs himself
- Auto sales strong in July on SUV, luxury demand
- Selective storm hits parts of Mon Valley
- Steelers notebook: No decision on surgery for rookie CB Golson