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Hour by hour: What to watch on Election Night
212-621-1500Associated Press
The Associated Press
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By The Associated Press
Published: Saturday, November 3, 2012, 11:30 a.m.
Updated: Saturday, November 3, 2012
WASHINGTON - Stock up on munchies and make sure the batteries in your TV remote are fresh. With this year's presidential election razor-close to the finish, Tuesday could be a long night.
Even if the presidency isn't decided until after midnight EST, there will be plenty of clues early in the evening on how things are going for President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. Obama has more options for piecing together the 270 electoral votes needed for victory, so any early setbacks for Romney could be important portents of how the night will end.
Here's a timetable for armchair election watchers on how the night will unfold, based on what time the last polls close in each state. All times are EST.
- 7 p.m.: Polls close in six states but all eyes will be on Virginia, the first of the battleground states to begin reporting results. If either candidate is comfortably ahead in Virginia, with 13 electoral votes, that could be a leading indicator of which way the night is going.
Virginia typically has been fairly fast at counting ballots. But there's a new voter ID law in the state that could complicate things this year. Voters who don't bring identification to the polls still can have their ballots counted if they produce ID by Friday. If the race in Virginia is super tight, it could come down to those provisional ballots. On Election Night, no one will even know how many of them are out there.
Virginia is especially important for Romney. In 2008, Obama became the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry Virginia since 1964. Keep an eye on turnout in northern Virginia's Democratic strongholds for an early idea of which way the state will go.
- 7:30 p.m.: Polls close in three states, including all-important Ohio (18 electoral votes) and competitive North Carolina (15).
If Ohio is particularly close, and polls suggest it might be, there's a chance the outcome there won't be known until after Election Day, and the presidency could hinge on it. In the last several elections, between 2 percent and 3 percent of the state's votes came from provisional ballots, which aren't counted until later. In 2004, after a long, tense night counting votes, the presidential race wasn't decided until 11 a.m. the next day, when Democrat John Kerry called President George Bush to concede Ohio and the presidency.
Romney desperately needs Ohio; no Republican has won the presidency without it. Without Ohio, Romney would need victories in nearly all the remaining up-for-grabs states and he'd have to pick off key states now leaning Obama's way, such as Wisconsin and Iowa. Obama has more work-arounds than Romney if he can't claim Ohio.
In North Carolina, the most conservative of the hotly contested states, Romney appeared to have the late edge in polling. Obama, who narrowly won the state in 2008, has paid less attention to it recently. An Obama victory there could point to broader troubles for Romney.
- 8 p.m.: More pieces of the puzzle will start falling into place as polls close in the District of Columbia and 16 states, including battlegrounds Florida (29) and New Hampshire (four).
Democratic-leaning parts of Florida tend to be the last places to report, so be careful about jumping to a conclusion if Romney looks strong early on. Most of the polls in Florida close at 7 p.m. Eastern, so by 8 p.m. Eastern, when the last polls close, results will start to roll out quickly. But fully 4.5 percent of votes in Florida weren't counted on election night in 2008, so if things are tight, no one's going to be hasty about declaring a victor in the state. Especially after the 2000 fiasco in which the winner in Florida, and thus the presidency, wasn't determined for more than a month. If you want to get really granular, Hillsborough County, home to Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, is widely considered a bellwether for the state.
Tiny New Hampshire is another competitive state to watch closely.
Also keep watch on Pennsylvania for any signs of a Romney surprise. The state has long been considered safe for Obama, but Republicans started running ads there in the final week of the campaign and the GOP ticket was campaigning there Sunday. No Republican presidential candidate has carried the state in nearly a quarter century.
- 8:30 p.m.: Polls close in Arkansas (six), where Romney is comfortably ahead in surveys.
- 9 p.m.: Polls close in 14 states, including battlegrounds Colorado (nine) and Wisconsin (10). Democrats have carried Wisconsin for six straight presidential elections and Obama had the edge in polling going in, so a flip here would be especially noteworthy.
Colorado, where almost 80 percent of voters cast early ballots, could be a straggler because it's so close. Historically, as much as 10 percent of the state's vote doesn't get counted on election night, and those ballots could be decisive in a close race.
Information from exit polls could help flesh out the Colorado picture: Young professionals and Hispanic voters were central to Obama's victory there in 2008, but the sluggish economy has hurt his standing.
Two more to watch: Minnesota and Michigan. The states long have been considered safe for Obama, but the Republicans made late moves there.
- 10 p.m.: Polls close in four states, including the last of the battlegrounds, Iowa (six) and Nevada (six).
Iowa's been leaning toward Obama, but watch how the vote breaks down geographically. Can Romney's advantage in GOP-heavy western Iowa overcome Obama's edge in eastern swing territory?
If Obama wins Ohio and Wisconsin, Romney would have to have help from the West, in places like Nevada and Colorado. Nevada, where two-thirds of the electorate votes early, has been moving Obama's direction in recent weeks, powered by strength in huge labor and Hispanic voting blocs. A Romney incursion there would really mean something
-11 p.m.: Polls close in five western states, but most are foregone conclusions for Obama. He gets 78 electoral votes from California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington; Romney gets four from Idaho.
- 1 a.m. Wednesday: The last of the polls close, in Alaska. Romney gets three electoral votes. Will many people still be up?
Political junkies could well be waiting to see how things play out in one or more battleground states.
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ECONOMIC REALITY CHECK There's more to the recent jobs report than meets the eye. First, although President Obama's Labor Dept. has reported an unexpected increase in jobs in October, the unemployment rate's increase to 7.9% is now higher than the 7.8% rate when he took office (NY Post, 11/3/12, p.24; Politco Pro, 11/2/12). As a result, we have the highest unemployment rate of any incumbent since President Roosevelt. (AP, 11/2/12, New Lond. Day). As a senior economist stated, notwithstanding whatever else in the Administration's report, "we're still not making enough progress to bring that unemployment rate down signifcantly and rapidly." (NY Times, 11/3/12, pp. B1-B2). The unemployment rate for Blacks and Hispanics is even higher, 14.3% and 10%, respectively, both increasing somewhat since September. (NY Times, 11/3/12, p. B2) Furthermore, unemployment increased by 170,000 to 12.3 million. (Dept. Labor report (DOL rep.), Empl. Situat. Sum. Table A; AP, 11/2/12, New Lond. Day). In addition, evidently not counted as unemployed were 2.4 million persons who were "marginally attached" to the labor force, little different than a year earlier. These persons wanted and were available for work, and had searched for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed simply because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks before the Labor Dept. survey. (DOL rep., p. 2.). Moreover, the unemployment figure rises from over 12 million to 23 million when considering "those stuck in part-time jobs who would prefer to have full-time ones and those too discouraged to search for work." (Wall St. Journal, 11/3/12, p. A6). In addition, about two out of five of the unemployed have been out of work for over six months. (NY Times. 11/3/12, p. B2). Furthermore, "[o]ne of the low points in the [US DOL] report was in hourly wages, which remained flat in October after showing barely any growth in the previous several months." (NY Times. 11/3/12, p. B2). That is not all. According to the National Employment Law Project, while most jobs lost in the downturn were middle-income ones, most jobs since created had been with lower wages. (NY Times. 11/3/12, p. B2). In addition, the U.S. poverty rate has increased from 12.5% in 2008 to 15.1% in 2011-a jump of at least 20%. (NY Post 10/28/12, p. 34). There are now 44.5 million Americans on food stamps. 47% of these recipients are children, and 48.6% live in cities. (NY Post 10/28/12, p. 34). One business writer has estimated that at the current rate, "it'll take a decade to get back the 6 million jobs that we've lost since the financial crisis." (John Crudele, N.Y. Post, 11/3/12, p. 27). Added to all this, many are concerned that Congress will fail to agree on the budget before January. If they disagree, "sharp tax increases and spending cuts will take effect next year and possibly trigger another recession." (AP, 11/2/12, New Lond. Day). We need a leader who can work with different points of view to reach agreement and who can also develop economic policies to increase jobs, not just food stamps. President Obama has had his chance, but appears over his head. He appears too divisive and unable to develop consensus. Notwithstanding his speech making skills, his economic policies-includng a massive stimulus, massive deficits and costly health care mandates--have not worked. It is Romney who offers a fresh start, new leadership, executive competence, and, based on his record as Governor, the ability to bring people together. He was also steadfast and kept both his head and his cool while Obama tried to assassinate his character With his economic and leadership experience, Romney appears to have the best chance to get America moving again, and also to keep us safe.
Submitted by: Daniel on Sunday, November 4, 2012
ECONOMIC REALITY CHECK There's more to the recent jobs report than meets the eye. First, although President Obama's Labor Dept. has reported an unexpected increase in jobs in October, the unemployment rate's increase to 7.9% is now higher than the 7.8% rate when he took office (NY Post, 11/3/12, p.24; Politco Pro, 11/2/12). As a result, we have the highest unemployment rate of any incumbent since President Roosevelt. (AP, 11/2/12, New Lond. Day). As a senior economist stated, notwithstanding whatever else in the Administration's report, "we're still not making enough progress to bring that unemployment rate down signifcantly and rapidly." (NY Times, 11/3/12, pp. B1-B2). The unemployment rate for Blacks and Hispanics is even higher, 14.3% and 10%, respectively, both increasing somewhat since September. (NY Times, 11/3/12, p. B2) Furthermore, unemployment increased by 170,000 to 12.3 million. (Dept. Labor report (DOL rep.), Empl. Situat. Sum. Table A; AP, 11/2/12, New Lond. Day). In addition, evidently not counted as unemployed were 2.4 million persons who were "marginally attached" to the labor force, little different than a year earlier. These persons wanted and were available for work, and had searched for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed simply because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks before the Labor Dept. survey. (DOL rep., p. 2.). Moreover, the unemployment figure rises from over 12 million to 23 million when considering "those stuck in part-time jobs who would prefer to have full-time ones and those too discouraged to search for work." (Wall St. Journal, 11/3/12, p. A6). In addition, about two out of five of the unemployed have been out of work for over six months. (NY Times. 11/3/12, p. B2). Furthermore, "[o]ne of the low points in the [US DOL] report was in hourly wages, which remained flat in October after showing barely any growth in the previous several months." (NY Times. 11/3/12, p. B2). That is not all. According to the National Employment Law Project, while most jobs lost in the downturn were middle-income ones, most jobs since created had been with lower wages. (NY Times. 11/3/12, p. B2). In addition, the U.S. poverty rate has increased from 12.5% in 2008 to 15.1% in 2011-a jump of at least 20%. (NY Post 10/28/12, p. 34). There are now 44.5 million Americans on food stamps. 47% of these recipients are children, and 48.6% live in cities. (NY Post 10/28/12, p. 34). One business writer has estimated that at the current rate, "it'll take a decade to get back the 6 million jobs that we've lost since the financial crisis." (John Crudele, N.Y. Post, 11/3/12, p. 27). Added to all this, many are concerned that Congress will fail to agree on the budget before January. If they disagree, "sharp tax increases and spending cuts will take effect next year and possibly trigger another recession." (AP, 11/2/12, New Lond. Day). We need a leader who can work with different points of view to reach agreement and who can also develop economic policies to increase jobs, not just food stamps. President Obama has had his chance, but appears over his head. He appears too divisive and unable to develop consensus. Notwithstanding his speech making skills, his economic policies-includng a massive stimulus, massive deficits and costly health care mandates--have not worked. It is Romney who offers a fresh start, new leadership, executive competence, and, based on his record as Governor, the ability to bring people together. He was also steadfast and kept both his head and his cool while Obama tried to assassinate his character With his economic and leadership experience, Romney appears to have the best chance to get America moving again, and also to keep us safe.
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