Is Punxsutawney Phil's prediction wrong this year?
Will Punxsutawney Phil be wrong this year in his weather prediction?
The famous furry forecaster predicted Saturday that spring may be around the corner. The groundhog did not see his shadow, thus predicting a short winter season and early spring.
A tradition that began in 1887, Phil has not seen his shadow only 16 times since then, for a total of 13.8 percent of the time. But the big question is, how reliable is he?
The famous groundhog has been correct only 39 percent of the time and has missed the mark the past three years.
In 2010, he saw his shadow, but we had mild conditions.
“There was a lot of snow in February, so he was right for four weeks, but it got really warm in March,” AccuWeather meteorologist Jack Boston said. “In March, all of a sudden, it turned warm and stayed that way. It was in the low 70s on March 21 (first day of spring).”
In 2011, the groundhog did not see his shadow. But that prediction was wrong as well.
“The temperatures were slightly above normal in February, but March, there was snow back and forth so there was not an early spring,” Boston said.
Last year, Phil saw his shadow. According to the National Regional Climate Center, the span from January to June 2012 was the warmest seven-month stretch of winter and spring recorded since systematic records began being kept in 1895.
“Well, he was definitely wrong last year,” Boston said.
So will Phil be correct this year?
Presently, with the predications from the National Weather Service, the answer at the time is no.
“We are looking at temperatures that are going to be well below normal and an above average snowfall for the month,” Boston said.
The average high temperature for February is 39 degrees with an average low of 23 and average snowfall for the area for February is 10 inches.
“In March, temperatures will be near normal and snowfall will be near normal, and winter is still going to be here,” Boston said.
March highs are averaged at 49 with lows of 30 degrees, and average snowfall is 7.6 inches.
Marilyn Forbes is a freelance writer.
Show commenting policy
TribLive commenting policy
You are solely responsible for your comments and by using TribLive.com you agree to our Terms of Service.
We moderate comments. Our goal is to provide substantive commentary for a general readership. By screening submissions, we provide a space where readers can share intelligent and informed commentary that enhances the quality of our news and information.
While most comments will be posted if they are on-topic and not abusive, moderating decisions are subjective. We will make them as carefully and consistently as we can. Because of the volume of reader comments, we cannot review individual moderation decisions with readers.
We value thoughtful comments representing a range of views that make their point quickly and politely. We make an effort to protect discussions from repeated comments either by the same reader or different readers.
We follow the same standards for taste as the daily newspaper. A few things we won't tolerate: personal attacks, obscenity, vulgarity, profanity (including expletives and letters followed by dashes), commercial promotion, impersonations, incoherence, proselytizing and SHOUTING. Don't include URLs to Web sites.
We do not edit comments. They are either approved or deleted. We reserve the right to edit a comment that is quoted or excerpted in an article. In this case, we may fix spelling and punctuation.
We welcome strong opinions and criticism of our work, but we don't want comments to become bogged down with discussions of our policies and we will moderate accordingly.
We appreciate it when readers and people quoted in articles or blog posts point out errors of fact or emphasis and will investigate all assertions. But these suggestions should be sent via e-mail. To avoid distracting other readers, we won't publish comments that suggest a correction. Instead, corrections will be made in a blog post or in an article.
- 3 taken into custody after shots fired at East Park in Connellsville
- Connellsville’s Porter Theater to present ‘Seven Brides’
- Man sentenced for fleeing from Redstone officer
- Fayette County doctor expects to go to prison in prescription scheme
- Fayette warden wants to add 8 full-timers
- Fayette County residents warned muggy weather could cause health problems
- Former Fayette County Democratic chairman, county commissioner Lebder dies at 94
- Hundreds to participate in Nicholson Memorial Bike Run to benefit cancer patients
- 3 charged in Fayette County shooting
- Attempted homicide charge dropped in Bullskin bat beating, but man held for trial on other counts
- Man charged with threats against Fayette firefighters