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Kentucky Derby analysis and picks: Orb is the choice

| Saturday, May 4, 2013, 12:03 a.m.

Picks by Trib staff writer John Grupp for the 139th Kentucky Derby

1. BLACK ONYX: Scratched.

2. OXBOW: Lukas will have to wait for his fifth Derby win.

3. REVOLUTIONARY: The best of Todd Squad. Must use.

4. GOLDEN SOUL: Improving, but overmatched.

5. NORMANDY INVASION: Great value, if he gets the trip.

6. MYLUTE: The “Napravnik effect” will crush the odds.

7. GIANT FINISH: Won't be able to live up to his name.

8. GOLDENCENTS: His best puts him in mix. Have doubts.

9. OVERANALYZE: One career Beyer over 88. Pass.

10. PALACE MALICE: Move up if the track is sloppy.

11. LINES OF BATTLE: Euro invader will be a huge price.

12. ITSMYLUCKYDAY: He'll need more than good fortune.

13. FALLING SKY: A pace factor, but not much else.

14. VERRAZANO: Too many factors going against him. Toss.

15. CHARMING KITTEN: If this were a turf race, maybe.

16. ORB: Fla. Derby winner looks terrific. Top choice.

17. WILL TAKE CHARGE: This post is 0 for 34 since 1930.

18. FRAC DADDY: Far too inconsistent to have a chance.

19. JAVA'S WAR: Nothing suggests he can get part of this.

20. VYJACK: Outside post way too much to overcome.

DERBY CAPSULE ANALYSIS

#16 ORB has done nothing wrong this year. He's working great, has Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey seeking first Derby win and hot jockey Joel Rosario. #5 NORMANDY INVASION needs a little bit of racing luck to finally display his ability. #3 REVOLUTIONARY will relish a wet track ­— rainstorms are in the forecast — and loved his wins in Withers and La. Derby. #11 LINES OF BATTLE will be a huge odds, and the distance and sloppy track won't be an issue.

Exacta key: 16/3-5-11

Exacta part-wheel: 3-5-1 116

Exacta box: 3-5-11-16

Trifecta/superfecta key: 16/3-5-11

Trifecta/superfecta box: 3-5-11-16

Trifecta wheel: 16/3-5-11/all and 16/all/3-5-11

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