Kentucky Derby analysis and picks: Orb is the choice
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Picks by Trib staff writer John Grupp for the 139th Kentucky Derby
1. BLACK ONYX: Scratched.
2. OXBOW: Lukas will have to wait for his fifth Derby win.
3. REVOLUTIONARY: The best of Todd Squad. Must use.
4. GOLDEN SOUL: Improving, but overmatched.
5. NORMANDY INVASION: Great value, if he gets the trip.
6. MYLUTE: The “Napravnik effect” will crush the odds.
7. GIANT FINISH: Won't be able to live up to his name.
8. GOLDENCENTS: His best puts him in mix. Have doubts.
9. OVERANALYZE: One career Beyer over 88. Pass.
10. PALACE MALICE: Move up if the track is sloppy.
11. LINES OF BATTLE: Euro invader will be a huge price.
12. ITSMYLUCKYDAY: He'll need more than good fortune.
13. FALLING SKY: A pace factor, but not much else.
14. VERRAZANO: Too many factors going against him. Toss.
15. CHARMING KITTEN: If this were a turf race, maybe.
16. ORB: Fla. Derby winner looks terrific. Top choice.
17. WILL TAKE CHARGE: This post is 0 for 34 since 1930.
18. FRAC DADDY: Far too inconsistent to have a chance.
19. JAVA'S WAR: Nothing suggests he can get part of this.
20. VYJACK: Outside post way too much to overcome.
DERBY CAPSULE ANALYSIS
#16 ORB has done nothing wrong this year. He's working great, has Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey seeking first Derby win and hot jockey Joel Rosario. #5 NORMANDY INVASION needs a little bit of racing luck to finally display his ability. #3 REVOLUTIONARY will relish a wet track — rainstorms are in the forecast — and loved his wins in Withers and La. Derby. #11 LINES OF BATTLE will be a huge odds, and the distance and sloppy track won't be an issue.
Exacta key: 16/3-5-11
Exacta part-wheel: 3-5-11⁄16
Exacta box: 3-5-11-16
Trifecta/superfecta key: 16/3-5-11
Trifecta/superfecta box: 3-5-11-16
Trifecta wheel: 16/3-5-11/all and 16/all/3-5-11
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