Kentucky Derby analysis and picks: Orb is the choice
By John Grupp
Published: Saturday, May 4, 2013, 12:01 a.m.
Picks by Trib staff writer John Grupp for the 139th Kentucky Derby
1. BLACK ONYX: Scratched.
2. OXBOW: Lukas will have to wait for his fifth Derby win.
3. REVOLUTIONARY: The best of Todd Squad. Must use.
4. GOLDEN SOUL: Improving, but overmatched.
5. NORMANDY INVASION: Great value, if he gets the trip.
6. MYLUTE: The “Napravnik effect” will crush the odds.
7. GIANT FINISH: Won't be able to live up to his name.
8. GOLDENCENTS: His best puts him in mix. Have doubts.
9. OVERANALYZE: One career Beyer over 88. Pass.
10. PALACE MALICE: Move up if the track is sloppy.
11. LINES OF BATTLE: Euro invader will be a huge price.
12. ITSMYLUCKYDAY: He'll need more than good fortune.
13. FALLING SKY: A pace factor, but not much else.
14. VERRAZANO: Too many factors going against him. Toss.
15. CHARMING KITTEN: If this were a turf race, maybe.
16. ORB: Fla. Derby winner looks terrific. Top choice.
17. WILL TAKE CHARGE: This post is 0 for 34 since 1930.
18. FRAC DADDY: Far too inconsistent to have a chance.
19. JAVA'S WAR: Nothing suggests he can get part of this.
20. VYJACK: Outside post way too much to overcome.
DERBY CAPSULE ANALYSIS
#16 ORB has done nothing wrong this year. He's working great, has Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey seeking first Derby win and hot jockey Joel Rosario. #5 NORMANDY INVASION needs a little bit of racing luck to finally display his ability. #3 REVOLUTIONARY will relish a wet track — rainstorms are in the forecast — and loved his wins in Withers and La. Derby. #11 LINES OF BATTLE will be a huge odds, and the distance and sloppy track won't be an issue.
Exacta key: 16/3-5-11
Exacta part-wheel: 3-5-11/16
Exacta box: 3-5-11-16
Trifecta/superfecta key: 16/3-5-11
Trifecta/superfecta box: 3-5-11-16
Trifecta wheel: 16/3-5-11/all and 16/all/3-5-11
Show commenting policy
TribLive commenting policy
You are solely responsible for your comments and by using TribLive.com you agree to our Terms of Service.
We moderate comments. Our goal is to provide substantive commentary for a general readership. By screening submissions, we provide a space where readers can share intelligent and informed commentary that enhances the quality of our news and information.
While most comments will be posted if they are on-topic and not abusive, moderating decisions are subjective. We will make them as carefully and consistently as we can. Because of the volume of reader comments, we cannot review individual moderation decisions with readers.
We value thoughtful comments representing a range of views that make their point quickly and politely. We make an effort to protect discussions from repeated comments either by the same reader or different readers.
We follow the same standards for taste as the daily newspaper. A few things we won't tolerate: personal attacks, obscenity, vulgarity, profanity (including expletives and letters followed by dashes), commercial promotion, impersonations, incoherence, proselytizing and SHOUTING. Don't include URLs to Web sites.
We do not edit comments. They are either approved or deleted. We reserve the right to edit a comment that is quoted or excerpted in an article. In this case, we may fix spelling and punctuation.
We welcome strong opinions and criticism of our work, but we don't want comments to become bogged down with discussions of our policies and we will moderate accordingly.
We appreciate it when readers and people quoted in articles or blog posts point out errors of fact or emphasis and will investigate all assertions. But these suggestions should be sent via e-mail. To avoid distracting other readers, we won't publish comments that suggest a correction. Instead, corrections will be made in a blog post or in an article.
- West Virginia withstands Wiggins’ 41 points, upsets No. 8 Kansas
- Fuel spill discovered on Loyalhanna Creek
- Penguins stave off Ducks’ shooting barrage to win in shootout
- Trade to Penguins caps frenetic period for winger Stempniak
- Real estate notes: Former J.C. Penney call center in Harmar sub-leased
- Family of curlers sets sights on ’18 Olympics
- Greensburg woman accused of assaulting nurse in Excela Health Westmoreland Hospital
- John Denver tune finally an ‘official’ W.Va. state song
- East Hills brawl involves 50 people, nets at least 1 arrest
- Steelers restructure Brown’s contract to become salary cap compliant
- Penguins notebook: Maatta leaves lasting impression with Selanne