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Hurricane Jose a potential threat to East Coast next week

| Monday, Sept. 11, 2017, 10:21 p.m.
Delaney Kertzious carries clothes she salvaged from her house in the Cold Bay community after the passage of Hurricane Irma, in St. Martin, Monday, Sept. 11, 2017. Irma cut a path of devastation across the northern Caribbean, leaving thousands homeless after destroying buildings and uprooting trees.
Delaney Kertzious carries clothes she salvaged from her house in the Cold Bay community after the passage of Hurricane Irma, in St. Martin, Monday, Sept. 11, 2017. Irma cut a path of devastation across the northern Caribbean, leaving thousands homeless after destroying buildings and uprooting trees.

With Irma diminishing to a tropical storm, a hurricane-battered nation could soon shift its attention to Hurricane Jose, now meandering around the western Atlantic Ocean roughly 300 miles northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands.

As of 11 a.m, Jose had wind of 105 mph, making it a Category 2 storm.

Fortunately, over the weekend, Jose only brushed the islands of the Caribbean that had been slammed by Irma, such as Barbuda, Antigua and the Virgin Islands.

As for its forecast, hurricanes in this part of the Atlantic often race out to sea and into oblivion, but that won't be the case with Jose.

Calling it an "odd forecast track," the National Hurricane Center said that Jose should make a small clockwise loop over the open waters of the Atlantic for the next three days. This is due, the center said, to an area of high pressure that will move around the hurricane over the next several days.

Long-range models suggest that the strengthening high-pressure area will then force the hurricane to move west-northwest toward the East Coast, according to the Weather Underground.

Models show a wide range of possibilities, all the way from South Carolina to Newfoundland, or even out to sea. Of 20 runs of the GFS model ensemble forecast Monday morning, 25 percent resulted in an eventual landfall in the United States, and another 25 percent in Canada. The rest kept the storm out to sea.

For the European weather model, a recurvature out to sea or a landfall in New England or Canada were the preferred solutions.

As for intensity, the hurricane center is predicting a high-end Category 1 hurricane with 90-mph wind by Saturday.

Any potential direct hit from Jose wouldn't be until next week, however.

"Until Jose is farther along on its loop, the models are likely to have large errors, and we should not take too much comfort (or indulge in too much angst) over a particular set of model runs," Weather Underground meteorologist Jeff Masters said.

In the meantime, the only impact from the hurricane will be rough surf and the chance of rip currents in Hispaniola, the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands over the next couple of days.

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