Global population growth faster than expected, U.N. says
By The Los Angeles Times
Published: Thursday, July 11, 2013, 12:01 a.m.
This just in: Humanity is growing faster than thought.
In advance of World Population Day, United Nations demographers have revised official projections — upward. This meticulous band of number crunchers doesn't mean to be alarmist, but its statistics can be startling:
• Nigeria, the West African nation slightly larger than Texas, is on track to surpass the United States as the world's third-most populous country by 2050. The size of its population may rival that of China by the end of the century.
• The number of people living on the African continent is set to nearly quadruple by the end of the century, rather than tripling, as previously projected.
• The world's population is on track to reach 9.6 billion by midcentury and nearly 11 billion by 2100, which is 700 million more than was projected two years ago.
The reason for the higher figures? A slew of recent household surveys in African countries revealed that the average number of children per woman was higher than previously estimated, said Francois Pelletier, chief of the U.N.'s population estimates and projections section.
In some countries, “a high level of fertility appears to have risen even higher,” Pelletier said. In others, “we realized the earlier estimates were too low.”
A seemingly modest change from an average of four children per woman to five, he said, can produce a dramatic upswing due to the power of compound growth.
The prospect of Africa's population of 1.1 billion exceeding 4 billion has surprised some demographers, because Africa is not following the pattern of falling fertility around the world. Women on average around the globe have half as many children as they did in the 1960s.
The counter-trend reflects what the Population Council's John Bongaarts calls “a lost decade of family planning in Africa.”
Some of the programs and money once devoted to providing contraceptives to poor women have been scaled back or diverted to fight the AIDS epidemic, he said.
In Nigeria, 10 percent of married women of childbearing years are taking birth control pills, using intrauterine devices or other forms of modern contraception. That compares with 72 percent of married women of reproductive age in the United States.
More than 220 million women in the developing world say they would like to avoid pregnancy but are not using modern contraception, according to analysis of household surveys. Many of them are in Africa.
The British government, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and other governmental and nonprofit organizations met in London last year to reinvigorate the effort to provide contraceptives to women who want them. They are developing plans to reach 120 million women who don't have access to contraceptives by the year 2020.
Show commenting policy
TribLive commenting policy
You are solely responsible for your comments and by using TribLive.com you agree to our Terms of Service.
We moderate comments. Our goal is to provide substantive commentary for a general readership. By screening submissions, we provide a space where readers can share intelligent and informed commentary that enhances the quality of our news and information.
While most comments will be posted if they are on-topic and not abusive, moderating decisions are subjective. We will make them as carefully and consistently as we can. Because of the volume of reader comments, we cannot review individual moderation decisions with readers.
We value thoughtful comments representing a range of views that make their point quickly and politely. We make an effort to protect discussions from repeated comments either by the same reader or different readers.
We follow the same standards for taste as the daily newspaper. A few things we won't tolerate: personal attacks, obscenity, vulgarity, profanity (including expletives and letters followed by dashes), commercial promotion, impersonations, incoherence, proselytizing and SHOUTING. Don't include URLs to Web sites.
We do not edit comments. They are either approved or deleted. We reserve the right to edit a comment that is quoted or excerpted in an article. In this case, we may fix spelling and punctuation.
We welcome strong opinions and criticism of our work, but we don't want comments to become bogged down with discussions of our policies and we will moderate accordingly.
We appreciate it when readers and people quoted in articles or blog posts point out errors of fact or emphasis and will investigate all assertions. But these suggestions should be sent via e-mail. To avoid distracting other readers, we won't publish comments that suggest a correction. Instead, corrections will be made in a blog post or in an article.
- W.Pa. engineer aboard missing Malaysia Airlines flight
- Suicide car bomb, attacks kill at least 42 in Iraq
- Syrian rebels reportedly release nuns held since December
- Toronto mayor’s staff in dark on daylight saving
- Israel: Iranian shipment contained 40 rockets
- ‘Dead’ Mexican drug kingpin Moreno likely killed in shootout, official says
- Libya says its forces near oil tanker
- Vietnam says it may have found missing jet’s door
- Eastern European military officers say security, economic ties blunt Russia’s war threat in Ukraine
- Blame splits on deadly China slashings at train station
- Despite holiday, Venezuelans continue to amass