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... & bogus forecasting

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Saturday, April 16, 2011
 

Researchers who reviewed global-warming "forecasting" have found that procedures followed by the United Nations' chief climate cluckers violated 81 percent of 89 relevant forecasting principles.

Along with other experts who have peeked behind the curtain of climate change, these researchers have come to a common conclusion: The alarm over man-made global warming is an anti-scientific political movement.

In a presentation to Congress, J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania -- whose own work in forecasting methods is internationally known -- said the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has failed to demonstrate the "predictive validity" of its procedures.

And yet the IPCC's calls for action are based on predicted climate conditions, says Dr. Armstrong, who worked with researchers from the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics and the University of South Australia.

Rather than defend its dubious predictions, the IPCC insists "that nearly all scientists agree with the forecast," according to the researchers' findings published by The Heartland Institute ( heartland.org ), a nonprofit research organization. "Such an appeal to 'voting' is contrary to the scientific method. It is also incorrect."

As forecasts go, the IPCC's future credibility is especially bleak.

 

 
 


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