John Dorfman: My buy-sell ratings on 20 largest stocks

The largest stocks dominate the headlines — and investors’ wallets.

So even though I’m fond of off-the-beaten-path stocks, once a year I give my buy-or-avoid ratings on the 20 largest stocks. Today’s the day.

• Apple Inc. (AAPL, $2.4 trillion market value). Buy. The company’s iPhones and Mac computers have a loyal following. Having $48 billion in cash and marketable securities helps, too.

• Microsoft Corp. (MSFT, $1.8 trillion). Avoid. It’s a fine company, but the stock was way overpriced a year ago, in my opinion, and is still somewhat overpriced now.

• Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL, $1.3 trillion). Buy. The most innovative American company, in my view. It has increased its earnings by 15% a year for the past decade.

• Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN, $1.2 trillion). Avoid. In the past few quarters, revenue growth slowed and earnings fell. Yet the stock still sells for 101 times recent earnings.

• Tesla Inc. (TSLA, $863 billion). Avoid. It’s an exciting company, and Elon Musk is a charismatic guy, but in my opinion the stock price (at 14 times revenue) is just too high.

• Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.B, $591 billion). Buy. Under CEO Warren Buffett, Berkshire owns dozens of companies and has $327 billion in investments. In my book, no one beats Buffett.

• UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH, $480 billion). Neutral. I’m lukewarm. But if the widely predicted recession is at hand, health care stocks are likely a decent place to hide.

• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, $438 billion). Buy. This health care conglomerate is a notch cheaper than UnitedHealth and has a better return on total capital (17% versus 10%).

• Visa Inc. (V, $388 billion). Avoid. Visa’s earnings growth has been admirable. But it’s expensive at 14 times revenue and untimely if a recession is at hand.

• Meta Platforms Inc. (META, $377 billion). Avoid. Facebook, its flagship product, seems to be losing cachet among young people. Earnings in the June quarter were down from a year ago.

• Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM, $357 billion). Buy. Exxon shares were up 45% in the past year while most stocks were down. I think the oil industry revival will continue.

• Walmart Inc. (WMT, $353 billion). Avoid. I’m torn because Walmart usually holds up well in recessions. But 25 times recent earnings is more than I want to pay.

• Procter & Gamble Co. (PG, $323 billion). Avoid. Products like detergent and razor blades are staples; people buy them even in tough times. But I think investors overpay for the presumptive steadiness.

• JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM, $320 billion). Buy. This blue chip has fallen more than 34% in the past year. Banks have their troubles, but at nine times earnings, I think it’s a bargain.

• Nvidia Corp. (NVDAA, $312 billion). Avoid. The Fed’s campaign of raising interest rates is poison to high-multiple stocks, and Nvidia’s multiple is 41 times earnings.

• Eli Lilly and Co. (LLY, $296 billion). Avoid. Lilly’s 10-year revenue growth figure is unimpressive at 3.3%, yet the stock still commands 50 times earnings.

• Mastercard Inc. (MA, $284 billion). Avoid. Colleagues talked me into buying Mastercard a few years ago, and we did well. But 13 tunes revenue? That’s dangerously high.

• Chevron Corp. (CVX, $283 billion). Buy. After six years in the wilderness, the oil industry is making strong profits again. Also, Chevron sports a 3.8% dividend yield.

• Home Depot Inc. (HD, $277 billion). Buy. I’ve had Home Depot as an “avoid” the past four years. But with the stock down to where it was eight years ago, I think it’s a value.

• Bank of America Corp. (BAC, $255 billion). Buy. The Fed’s raising short-term interest rates hurt banks. Nonetheless, at nine times earnings, I think BAC is cheap enough to be a buy.

Past record

The past year has been tough for almost all stocks, and the 20 largest are no exception. A year ago, I slapped an “avoid” rating on 14 large stocks. They declined an average of 23.7%. The six stocks I recommended buying were down an average of “only” 17.1%.

Long-term my “buys” have beaten my “avoids” by the narrowest of margins, 11.4% to 11.2%. (The long-term figure covers 18 columns about the largest stocks written from 2001 through 2021.)

Bear in mind that my column results are hypothetical and shouldn’t be confused with results I obtain for clients. Also, past performance doesn’t predict the future.

Disclosure: I own Alphabet, Apple and Berkshire Hathaway personally and for most of my clients. One or more clients hold Amazon.com, Chevron, Exxon Mobile, Johnson & Johnson, JP Morgan Chase, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla and UnitedHealth.