John Dorfman Columns category

High profits are the engine that can drive pleasant returns for shareholders. Beyond that, on a societal level, profits provide the signals that make the capitalist system work. These signals are the reason capitalist economies have fewer gluts and shortages than centrally planned (Communist) economies. High profits lure new competitors,...

Maybe, just maybe, the moment that value investors have been waiting for has arrived. In August, value stocks were up more than 3%, while growth stocks returned a little over 1%. The value revival, if it’s real, has been a long time coming. Growth has outperformed value in eight of...

“It’s my way or the highway.” That’s the attitude of some investment professionals toward stock-selection methods that differ from their own. If astronomers had a narrow view like that, they might spot Jupiter but miss the beautiful rings of Saturn. The price-to-cash flow ratio isn’t my favorite measure, but I...

July set a record for companies buying back their own shares. They did it to the tune of $166 billion. Are the companies whose stocks you own buying back their own shares? It’s worth checking. Buybacks aren’t a magic panacea for raising shareholder value, but they often help. When there...

In today’s higher-tariff world, where political and geopolitical clashes are harsh, you might want to take your stock portfolio’s risk level down a notch. Perhaps the Sane Portfolio can be of some help. This is a theoretical portfolio, intended to be slightly on the low-risk side of the risk spectrum....

The numbers are stark. In the 12 months through June, growth stocks returned 19.9%, while value stocks managed only 9.6%. Alas for value investors, the two previous years tell the same story. In 2023 the scorecard showed a return of 30% for growth and 22.2% for value. In 2024 the...

Darn! Missed by a whisker. My Perfect 10 Portfolio returned 14.6% in the past year, a hair behind the Standard & Poor’s 500 Total Return Index at 14.7%. That doesn’t damper my enthusiasm for this portfolio. In 22 years, it has averaged more than an 18% return, while the index...

There are many ways companies can manipulate their reported profits. Fudging sales (also known as revenue) is more difficult. That’s one reason why I always check the price-to-sales ratio when I’m considering a stock. It’s simply the stock’s price divided by sales per share. For example, CVS Health Corp. (CVS)...

Give me your battered, your cheap, Your wounded stocks that crave a second chance, The wretched refuse of the market’s heap. They’ve stumbled, yet they soon again may dance. That little poem (with apologies to Emma Lazarus) sums up the idea behind my Casualty List. It’s a roster of stocks...

You might think UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) would be on the ropes. One of its top executives was shot dead, its CEO resigned for personal reasons and the federal government is probing its billing practices. But executives at this health insurance and health services giant apparently don’t think doom is...

The best performing sector in the stock market for the past year has been the unsung financial sector. Its 24% return through May 31 was nearly double the return on the market as a whole. Unlike technology or biotech, financial stocks don’t get people very excited. There’s no tantalizing hint...

About 14 months ago, I wrote a column about gold. “I don’t think gold is an investment for all seasons,” I wrote, “but right now, I think it’s sensible to hold some.” That turned out to be right. Gold is up about 51% since I made that recommendation, including a...

When a company buys back its own shares, shareholders often benefit. With fewer shares outstanding, each share is likely to be worth more. In the past 20 years, buybacks have become increasingly popular. Many companies prefer them to dividends because they have a softer tax impact. Dividends stick shareholders with...

You probably wouldn’t bet on a horse that usually finishes in the middle of the pack. But, in the stock market, sometimes that’s a good idea. Once a year, I write about my “Do Nothing Club,” a group of stocks that linger near their prices from a year ago but...

A 446% gain in Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) propelled Christy Anderson to a victory in the 2024-25 running of Dorfman’s Three-Stock Derby, an annual stock-picking contest. Anderson of Las Vegas is chief operating officer of a small company that makes radio frequency amplifiers with military applications. As such, she became...

One of my favorite tools for picking stocks is a paradigm I call Old Faithful, named after the geyser in Yellowstone Park. This paradigm fizzled last year but has an outstanding long-term record. To appear on the Old Faithful list, a stock must: • Post good profits (15% return on...

In today’s tumultuous market climate, it’s hard to know what stocks to hold. But the stocks of outstanding companies always deserve a look. Consider the members of my 30-30 Club. In baseball, the 30-30 Club includes players who hit 30 home runs and steal 30 bases in a year. My...

The tariff steamroller ran over the stocks of some good companies in the first quarter and early April. That provides lots of candidates for my Casualty List, a roster of stocks that have been hit hard and that I believe have excellent recovery potential. The basic idea in investing is...

You’re probably hearing a lot — much of it malarkey — about how to position your investment portfolio in an age of tariffs and trade wars. One piece of advice you may hear, which at least makes some sense, is that mid-capitalization stocks are less dependent on foreign suppliers and...

This year through March 21, stocks were up 9% in France, 15% in Germany and 18% in Hong Kong. In the U.S., stocks were down 3%. A little international diversification might be a good idea, especially with U.S. stocks currently on the expensive side. Yet many American investors have 100%...

The Nasdaq Stock Market led the way up in the great rally of the past two years. Now it’s leading the way down. Nasdaq is home to most big technology stocks and many small stocks. The Nasdaq Composite Total Return Index gained more than 44% in 2023 and more than...

Company insiders are ditching their own stock more than usual. An exception is oil and gas executives, some of whom are buying while their shares are depressed. To gauge insider sentiment, look at the ratio of buys to sells by top executives and large shareholders. According to Gurufocus.com, about 34%...

Terry Johnson, the winner of my Derby of Economic Forecasting Talent (DEFT) for 2024, likes to count trucks. Specifically, he counts the number of big rigs — 18-wheelers and the like — on a 45-mile stretch between Lincoln and York, Neb. More trucks means the economy is doing well. Fewer...

There are no sure ways to win in the stock market. But here’s a fairly sure way to lose: Invest in a stock that sells for 100 times revenue or more. The price/sales ratio for General Motors is less than one, for McDonald’s Corp. about 9, and for Microsoft about...

“Winning isn’t everything. It’s the only thing,” said football coach Vince Lombardi years ago. Many investors feel the same way about earnings. Excuse me, Lombardi disciples, but earnings aren’t the only thing. To withstand unexpected hardships or to seize timely opportunities, a company’s financial strength is also key. Once a...