Covid surge overwhelms Allegheny County case investigation efforts

A staggering rise in new covid-19 cases in Allegheny County means fewer people will receive calls from case investigators who have been overwhelmed with the rapid increase, Allegheny County Health Director Dr. Debra Bogen said Friday.

On Thursday and Friday, the county recorded a combined 1,642 new cases – more than the total number of new cases in May and June combined.

It will get worse, Bogen said, with some models showing that at this pace, Allegheny County hospitals could be overwhelmed within a month.

“Sadly,” she said in a statement, “we anticipate that the number of cases will continue to rise due to community spread, the holiday and the expected delayed impact of mitigation efforts.”

Case investigators were already hampered by the rising case counts, Bogen said Wednesday, detailing how investigators spend less time on the phone with patients and rely on secure and confidential questionnaires sent via email.

The increase of the past two days has further strained the case investigation infrastructure, she said. Case investigators on Friday started prioritizing some calls over others: most new cases reported in people aged 6 to 17 and 45 to 59 will not receive case investigation calls.

“If you have recently tested positive for the virus and have not been called by the health department, please stay home, isolate and call your close contacts to ask them to quarantine and get tested,” Bogen said.

In addition to the strain on investigators, Bogen said she worries about the potential for strain on the region’s health care system. Hospitalizations usually lag about two weeks behind a rise in cases.

“At this moment, we have enough staff and hospital capacity,” she said. “However, if cases continue to rise at this rate, modeling predicts our health care system could be overwhelmed within a month.”

She pleaded for residents to heed the stay-at-home advisory laid out by both her and Gov. Tom Wolf. The advisories ask residents to leave their homes only for work, school, to receive medical care, to exercise or to get essentials like groceries and medicine.

“Anytime we leave our homes, we put ourselves and others at risk,” she said, noting that many can have covid-19 and not feel ill, thus spreading it without knowing it.

“We know that it can take two weeks for changes in behavior to impact the spread of the virus and for case numbers to decrease, which is why I am asking you to start now,” Bogen said.