Enrollment projected to increase slightly over next decade in North Allegheny School District

While the population at North Alle­gheny’s elementary schools is projected to hold steady over the next decade, the high school could increase by 100 students, according to a demographic study presented to the school board Oct. 15.

With the design phase for renovating three elementary schools and the high school set to begin this December, North Allegheny Superintendent Brendan Hyland said an external review of enrollment projections would help provide clarity on whether they are heading in the right direction.

“As we started looking at potential renovations in our district, we thought it would be prudent to do a demographic study just to make sure that we dotted I’s and crossed T’s with regard to where our movement is headed in the district,” Hyland said.

Shelby Stewman, a well-known demographer in the area and former Carnegie Mellon University professor, presented the report and also has provided demographic studies for North Allegheny in 2019 and 2022 before redistricting.

The total enrollment for North Allegheny is expected to increase by 150 students over the next 10 years, from 2024 to 2034, bringing the projected enrollment from the present 8,600 to 8,750, and edging closer to the 9,000 mark, according to Stewman’s current report.

The high school, which has remained steady for two decades at about 2,700 students, will have a 100-student bump by 2034, he projects.

The school board has referenced Marshall in previous discussions as an assumed area of growth and even briefly discussed whether another elementary school would need to be built there.

“There’s a lot of housing that has gone on. Right now, it’s centered on Marshall. But Franklin Park is not far behind,” Stewman said.

There were 75 single-family and three townhome building permits issued in 2023 and 56 single-family and three townhomes in 2024, according to Marshall’s 2025 township budget.

But there also has been growth in McCandless, Stewman said.

While he projects there may be a slight decrease in students in the total elementary levels, it will overall hold steady.

Stewman said the “good news” is a new elementary school does not need to be built, according to his projections.

Middle schools would have a slight increase of about 100 students in the next five years, followed by a projected decrease of 42 students.

The district tracks its enrollment internally but also looks for an external source when looking out 10 years, according to Kermit Houser, treasurer and director of finance for North Allegheny.

An annual internal review of the district’s enrollment and demographic figures was presented ahead of Stewman’s report, which included an enrollment of fewer than 8,000 by 2035 to 2036.

However, this report uses data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education, which includes a linear decline in projected births.

The difference between North Allegheny’s and Stewman’s reports stems from the underlying assumptions utilizing different forecasted future live birth rate ratios and measures of net migration, including additional housing, according to Houser.

“While the state uses broad-based assumptions lacking specificity for districts, which can cause over or under long-term inaccuracies, Mr. Stewman was able to drill deeper into North Allegheny’s localized data,” Houser said.

Stewman’s proven track record and historical accuracy for projected enrollment at North Allegheny and many other districts across the region have made him a popular go-to when providing demographic reports, according to Houser.

The report helps support the future renovation plans of the district with total costs of Hosack, Ingomar and Peebles elementary schools and phase one of the senior high school projected at $63.6 million.

Construction and procurement are proposed to take place in all of 2027 and through the summer of 2028 for the three elementary schools and senior high school, with an expected construction close-out by fall 2028, according to the presentation.

Construction on the intermediate high school would take place in the spring of 2028, with an expected close-out by 2030, according to the proposed timeline.

Both reports can be found under the school board’s BoardDocs tab at northallegheny.org.