5 things to watch in Tuesday's primary

Primary elections are typically low-interest affairs among Pennsylvania’s registered voters, but Tuesday’s contest is fraught with plot twists because of the coronavirus pandemic and could shape up to be one for the record books.

A high volume of mail-in ballots is drawing predictions of high turnout for a primary despite a low number of contested races. It’s also triggered concerns about voter fraud, particularly from President Trump.

Voters are being asked to wear masks and practice social distancing and could experience long lines because of polling place consolidation.

Candidates dealing with stay-at-home orders have abandoned time-worn strategies such as rallies and door-to-door campaigning and are relying on the digital world to get their messages out.

“When did you ever hear of people interested in a primary election before?” said Gerald Shuster, professor of political communication at the University of Pittsburgh. “It’s because one, they have more time, and two, there’s been very good media coverage. I think it’s much more of an opportunity for people to participate than they had before.”

Here are five things to watch as the primary unfolds:

Mail-in ballots

Pennsylvania for the first time this year is permitting all residents to vote by mail because of the pandemic. Trump and Republicans have predicted widespread fraud, despite a lack of evidence suggesting that.

Allegheny County had processed more than 280,000 ballot applications, according to Elections Division Manager David Voye. Westmoreland County sent out 47,635 mail-in ballots, Elections Bureau Director Beth Lechman said.

Shuster attributed the numbers to the ease of voting by mail and downplayed the possibility of fraud.

“I don’t think there’s any more potential for fraud than there would have been in any other method,” he said.

Voye said ballots are locked in elections offices before being transferred to a secure warehouse where they are stored in view of surveillance cameras. The process of opening envelopes, removing ballots and counting happens before “dozens of witnesses,” which can include reporters and poll watchers, he said.

Voter turnout

If all applicants in Allegheny County return ballots, it would equal a voter turnout of about 36%, high for a primary election. Voye previously projected 22% turnout for the primary.

Lechman predicted turnout in Westmoreland could hit 40% to 45%.

“I have heard everything from 38(%) to 40(%),” Shuster said. “I think 40% is right on target.”

Polls

Allegheny County consolidated more than half of its polling places because of a lack of poll workers. Officials said voters could experience long lines.

“We ask all voters to be patient and to plan accordingly,” Voye said.

The county is encouraging voters to wear masks and practice social distancing. Polls will be equipped with sanitizer and personal protective equipment for workers. Masks will be available at each poll, but election workers will not turn away anyone who refuses to wear one.

Voters are encouraged to bring their own pens as a safety measure. Blue ink is preferred.

Campaign strategy

Shuster described the pandemic as a double-edged sword for campaigns. While candidates have been forced to rely on methods such as social media, television and online appearances, they have more time than usual for campaigning because of pandemic restrictions, he said.

Pittsburgh Controller Michael Lamb, who is in a contested statewide race for auditor general, recently said he’s campaigning through teleconferences, Facebook, email, texting and social media.

Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has broadcast his messages from his Delaware home.

One of the most striking differences is a lack of campaign signs that typically pop up like weeds across Western Pennsylvania lawns and highways at election time.

Shuster said that could present a challenge for candidates trying to unseat incumbents.

“That helps the incumbent, because if you’re trying to challenge someone you really need that name recognition,” he said.

The races

Obviously races are the most important part of any election, but the region has a low number of contested contests in this year’s primary.

High-profile races include the statewide race for auditor general, where Lamb is facing six Democrats while Republican candidate Timothy DeFoor is running unopposed.

University of Pittsburgh law professor Jerry S. Dickinson is challenging 13-term U.S. Rep. Mike Doyle of Forest Hills for a Democratic nomination in the 18th Congressional District.

Republicans Mike Heckmann, Rob Mercuri and Libby Blackburn are seeking the GOP nomination to replace Mike Turzai, who isn’t seeking reelection to his seat in the 28th State House District. Democrat Emily Skopov is running unopposed for the seat.

In the 36th State House District, Democrats Jessica Benham, Ed Moeller, Heather Kass and Mark Johnson are seeking their party’s nomination to replace Harry Readshaw, who isn’t seeking reelection. Republican A.J. Doyle is unopposed.