Pa. average gas price could fall below $4 by late August, analyst says

The national average price of gasoline could go below $4 per gallon as soon as today as prices fall for an eighth straight week, industry analyst Patrick De Haan said.

AAA was reporting the national average at $4.06. National gas price-tracking service GasBuddy has it lower, at $4.01.

“By the end of the week, 100,000 stations will be at $3.99 or less,” said De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “Diesel continues to decline as well and will likely soon fall under $5 per gallon.

“We’ve even seen nearly a dozen stations in low-priced states fall under $2.99, a welcome return to some lucky motorists in areas of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Iowa,” he said. “The groundwork is laid for a ninth week of decline, with areas of the West Coast soon ditching the $5-per-gallon average.”

On Monday, Pennsylvania’s average was about $4.38, about 32 cents per gallon higher than the national average, according to AAA.

The state’s average is 9 cents per gallon less than a week ago and 44 cents less than a month ago.

Pennsylvania has about a 60% chance of falling below $4 by late August, De Haan said. The state’s gas tax is a major reason for Pennsylvania’s average being higher than the rest of the nation, but it’s not the only reason.

“The Northeast also saw a big drop in gasoline imports, so much of the region saw prices go up slightly last week before those gains reversed Friday,” he said.

Statewide, average prices range from about $4.18 in Perry County to $4.54 in Forest and Potter counties. The highest average prices currently are seen mostly across the state’s northern tier, according to AAA.

County averages in the Pittsburgh area as reported by AAA:

• Allegheny County: $4.38

• Armstrong County: $4.41

• Beaver County: $4.41

• Butler County: $4.40

• Washington County: $4.43

• Westmoreland County: $4.36

GasBuddy said the Pittsburgh-area average was $4.37 on Monday, based on its survey of 731 stations. That’s 12 cents per gallon less than a week ago and about 50 cents less than a month ago.

Prices in the Pittsburgh area range from $3.79 per gallon to $5.09, a difference of $1.30, according to GasBuddy.

While De Haan said he is optimistic that the drop in prices can continue for another couple of weeks, “we’re starting to see some activity in the tropics, which may increase risk of potential disruption.”

Neighboring areas and their current prices, according to GasBuddy:

• Akron: $3.51 per gallon, down 21 cents from last week.

• Cleveland: $3.70 per gallon, down 19 cents from last week.

• West Virginia: $4.12, down 18 cents from last week.

The highest national average, about $5.02, was set June 14, while Pennsylvania saw its highest average, $5.07, on June 12, according to AAA.