Pennsylvania's covid-19 cases 'trend downward,' but health official says social distancing still critical

Pennsylvania’s top health official said Tuesday that cases of covid-19 continue to “trend downward” and, highlighting a new statistic being released by the state, estimated that more than three-fifths of the people sickened by the virus have recovered.

The state Department of Health reported 13 more covid-19 deaths and 451 additional cases, according to the state Department of Health.

The state has now had 68,637 total cases and 5,152 deaths. Deaths have been recorded in 54 of the state’s 67 counties, and every county has had a positive case.

More than 339,000 people have tested negative for the virus.

“Regionally, we are seeing some fluctuation of case counts. But overall, they continue to trend downward,” Secretary of Health Dr. Rachel Levine said during a news conference.

Levine said data show that 61% of people with covid-19 have recovered. The state had not previously released such recovery data.

If a case has not been reported as a death and it has been more than 30 days past the date of a person’s first positive test or onset of symptoms, then the individual is considered to have recovered, according to the health department.

The number doesn’t reveal much beyond how many patients were diagnosed within the past 30 days, according to Dr. Amesh Adalja, a Pittsburgh-based infectious disease specialist with Johns Hopkins University.

“It’s just an automatic thing,” he said. “Cases just flip over to being recovered when it’s been 30 days, if the patient is alive.”

Adalja said the number doesn’t help explain how a person is recovering.

“Each person’s recovery is going to be a little bit different,” Adalja said. “People who are in the ICU are going to have a more prolonged recovery than a case that had barely any symptoms at all.”

Although Levine said case counts have been trending downward, she stressed that residents living in areas which have transitioned to the yellow or green stages of the state’s reopening plan should still follow social distancing measures — keep 6 feet away from others, wear a mask and wash hands frequently.

She also advised people to avoid gathering in large groups, as some did over the Memorial Day weekend.

“I would express concern over those individuals,” Levine said. “As we’ve been saying, there’s still community spread of covid-19. If people are in large gatherings, that they’re not social distancing, staying 6 feet apart, not perhaps washing their hands as much as they should or using hand sanitizer and not wearing masks, then I would be concerned about the spread of covid-19 in those individuals.”

Nursing and personal care homes account for 25% of the state’s total cases, with 14,857 cases involving residents and 2,505 involving employees. About 66% of the state’s deaths involved residents of nursing and personal care homes. Cases have been reported at 594 facilities in 44 counties.

More than 5,100 of the total cases are in health care workers.

As of Tuesday, 49 counties, including Allegheny and Westmoreland, had been moved to the yellow phase of Gov. Tom Wolf’s three-tiered reopening plan. Eight additional counties are scheduled to move to the yellow phase on Friday, while 17 counties will move to the green phase the same day.

Specific guidance related to counties moving to the green phase is expected to be released this week, Levine said.

All remaining counties in the red phase are expected to move to yellow by June 5.

The number of confirmed and probable cases of the coronavirus in Allegheny County increased by 11 to 1,816, while no new deaths were reported. The county was reporting 150 deaths, while the state reported 160 deaths in Allegheny County. County officials have said the reason for the difference is in the state’s reporting databases. The county has access to only one of the two systems from which the state collects its data.

One new case was reported in Westmoreland County, bringing the total to 442. There remain 38 deaths in the county.