President Trump back in Western Pa. to rev up base, win over ‘slivers’ of wavering voters

President Trump will seek to rev up Western Pennsylvania voters Tuesday night during a campaign rally at a hangar outside Pittsburgh International Airport, marking the Republican incumbent’s fourth stop in the battleground state this month.

“I’m not at all surprised to see that Trump is back in the state,” said Dennis Plane, professor of politics at Juniata College in Huntingdon. “Pennsylvania is one of the keys that helped him win election, and it is one of the key states if he is going to win reelection.”

Trump’s scheduled remarks at Atlantic Aviation in Moon Township come 42 days before the Nov. 3 election and just as Allegheny and other counties statewide prepare to send out mail-in ballots.

The theme is simply, “Make America Great Again,” and experts say Trump is likely to hit on many of the same points he’s made in recent stops to the region — including presenting himself as the “law and order” candidate while downplaying social justice concerns and condemning related civil unrest.

“If he can persuade a sliver of the population that our cities are rioting and that the police are not supported by the Democratic leaders of those cities, then he can peel off a few votes,” Plane said.

Among other points Trump and those stumping for him, including his sons and Vice President Mike Pence, have been focusing on: creating jobs by de-regulating businesses, with a focus on the pre-pandemic economy and plans to rebound, and praising the Trump administration’s response to the covid-19.

“Certainly, the jobs numbers and the economy are not good news for Trump, so the Trump campaign is really in marketing mode, trying to convince Americans that things would have been so much worse if he hadn’t intervened” with the travel restrictions from China in late January, Plane said. “Most Americans are not finding that answer satisfactory. But again, it’s a closely divided election, and so you only have to sway a small fraction of Americans.”

To secure Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes, Trump needs to retain or expand his slim 2016 lead of 44,000 votes out of more than 6 million cast, and Democratic challenger Joe Biden must close the gap by reaching out to wavering Republicans and getting more people in general to vote. Recent polling indicates a roughly 4-percentage point matchup, with Biden showing a slight advantage — though Plane and others warned that 2016 polling put Hillary Clinton in the lead.

With the vast majority of voters likely having their minds made up, campaigns are targeting the minority of undecided voters or those who aren’t sure whether they will vote.

In 2016, Trump flipped historically blue areas red by appealing to working-class voters who felt neglected or unimpressed by Clinton, who made few public visits to Western Pennsylvania, said G. Terry Madonna, director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin & Marshall College. Though Pittsburgh and Philadelphia remain Democratic strongholds, Trump retains support in the areas that helped him win in 2016, which in addition to the middle and northeastern portions of the state includes the likes of Beaver, Washington, Westmoreland, Greene, Cambria and Fayette counties — some of which Trump won by double digits.

In recent weeks, both campaigns have been pursuing voters in the region in force.

Last week, the Biden campaign made a big Pennsylvania push touting themes of “Made in America” and bolstering the manufacturing workforce, including hosting virtual roundtables with labor leaders in Pittsburgh and small-business owners in Philadelphia. It culminated with Biden’s CNN Town Hall appearance on Sept. 17 in his hometown of Scranton.

Trump’s Tuesday event at the Pittsburgh airport hangar is set to begin at 7 p.m. It’s unclear how many tickets are being provided to attendees.

Trump’s Sept. 3 visit to Arnold Palmer Regional Airport drew more than 5,000, in defiance of public health orders during the coronavirus pandemic.

Both candidates visited the Flight 93 National Memorial in Somerset County on Sept. 11 to commemorate the 19th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks.

Trump also visited Scranton in August and in March, days before Pennsylvania’s first reports of confirmed covid-19 cases, and again in May. He visited the state five times in 2019.