Western Pa. election officials prepare for heavy voter turnout

Expect heavy turnout on Election Day, as this year’s midterm races are likely to draw voters in numbers rivaling that of presidential contests, officials said.

Election bureau workers will continue to count and tally votes until the task is completed, according to counties throughout Southwest Pennsylvania.

That includes opening and processing thousands of mail-in and absentee ballots that have flooded local election offices in recent weeks and tallying votes cast in person at precincts throughout the region. Officials said that process has been streamlined over the last two years, but is still expected slow the release of final unofficial results in what is expected to be close races.

Allegheny County elections officials predict turnout will range between 50% to 60%, spokeswoman Amie Downs said.

Scott Ross, the director of Westmoreland County’s computer information systems department, which oversees the election bureau, estimated turnout will reach as high as 70%. In Butler County, bureau of elections director Chantell McCurdy also predicted turnout to reach 70%.

If those estimates are realized, Tuesday’s turnout will approach the 76% mark reached in Pennsylvania during the 2020 presidential election. Turnout for 2018 midterms, which like this year included races for Pennsylvania governor and U.S. senator, topped 58%.

Chris Borick, a political science professor at Muhlenberg College in Allentown, said turnout this year is being driven by a combination of economic issues, response to the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on abortion during the summer, and energy from Democratic and Republican candidates fueled by the continued presence of former President Donald Trump on the political stage.

“It’s the first time in modern American history a former president is at the forefront of the midterm election. It’s all a cocktail for high engagement. A (midterm) turnout of 60% is historic and is in presidential election territory,” Borick said.

Early voting turnout — via mail-in and absentee ballots — has been heavy.

Nearly 1.4 million Pennsylvania voters requested mail-in ballots for this election. According to the Department of State, more than 144,000 mail-in and absentee ballots were returned by voters in Allegheny County through Friday, more than 31,000 in Westmoreland and 15,000 in Butler. Throughout Pennsylvania, more than 1 million ballots have been returned to county election offices.

Mail-in and absentee ballots must be received by 8 p.m. Tuesday, Nov. 8, at local election offices to be counted.

“We’ve had 82% of mail-in ballots requested already returned,” Westmoreland elections bureau director Greg McCloskey said.

Paul Adams, an associate professor of political science at the University of Pittsburgh at Greensburg, said the ongoing political divide that has dominated elections in recent years has led to more voter engagement this fall.

“Over the last couple of election cycles, we’ve seen an increased level of polarization. Because of that hyper-politicization and the type of politics we’re seeing, it’s an almost zero-sum game where voters are saying that unless our side wins, democracy is at stake. It motivates a lot more voters,” Adams said.

Joseph DiSarro, a political science professor at Washington and Jefferson College in Washington, Pa., said turnout in midterm elections typically favors the political party that is currently out of power. He expects that trend to continue this year, but cautioned that abortion could be a motivating factor to bring out more Democratic voters this fall.

“That’s the 800-pound gorilla in the room. We don’t know how it will play out, especially in the suburbs of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh,” DiSarro said.

Just when all the votes will be tallied is still to be determined.

Elections officials said they’ve become more efficient at processing and counting mail-in ballots since state lawmakers expanded their use in 2019.

Counties took days to tally ballots in the 2020 presidential contest, but elections officials said streamlined processes and experience have helped speed up the counting. Most counties said they will have unofficial final results before sunrise on Wednesday – or perhaps earlier.

“We expect the bulk of the mail-in and absentees will be done by 8 p.m., and all done by end of day,” Downs said.

McCurdy said Butler County expects to have its totals completed by 11 p.m. McCloskey said final results could be uploaded to Westmoreland’s website by midnight or 1 a.m.

But state officials have cautioned that the counting process could take time.

Under state law, counties cannot start the counting process until polls open at 7 a.m. on Election Day, and results cannot be published until after 8 p.m., said Leigh Chapman, Pennsylvania’s acting secretary of state. She said final unofficial results may take days.

“That short interval of time will not be because anything nefarious is occurring; rather, it simply means that the careful, deliberative process and timeline prescribed by Pennsylvania’s election code is at work to achieve a thorough count of every eligible vote,” Chapman wrote prior to the election.