UPMC doctors: Covid vaccine 'not going to happen' this year

UPMC doctors on Tuesday addressed the race for a covid-19 vaccine, calling it “this generation’s moonshot,” but warned that a vaccine by year’s end is pie in the sky.

“This is simply not going to happen,” said Dr. David Nace, chief medical officer of UPMC’s senior communities. “We’re hopeful that we can move as fast as we can, but, unfortunately, before the end of the year is not likely to occur.”

The comments came as doctors addressed how the upcoming flu season will intersect with the ongoing covid-19 pandemic, and they noted experts believe mitigation measures meant to stop the spread of covid-19 will lessen the impact of flu season.

Nace reminded people the flu vaccine is often not as effective for the elderly, who are the most vulnerable to the flu and to covid-19 — anywhere from 17% to 60% less effective, Nace said. He said the same likely could be true for the eventual covid-19 vaccine.

“I’m as eager as anyone for a safe and effective vaccine against covid-19, and it would be great news if that vaccine worked just as well for the frail, older adult population as it does for everyone else,” he said.

That, too, he said, is improbable.

“When it is ready, the vaccine is unlikely to work as well in the very people who need that prevention,” he said.

Complicating that, said Chair of Emergency Medicine Dr. Donald Yealy, is that polling shows that up to half of the population has indicated they would refuse an early iteration of a vaccine.

“How well will people accept the vaccine — I think that will be a bigger set of debates … than who within the non-health care worker population is first or second or third,” Yealy said. “This presents a whole other set of problems different from whatever the pecking order is that’s arranged by either scientific or societal needs.”

Dr. Graham Snyder, medical director of infection prevention, called the race for a vaccine “our generation’s moonshot” but cautioned it will not be a silver bullet.

“It’s unlikely to be the covid-19 endgame,” he said. “It’s unlikely to end the pandemic. It will be an important tool for us to help reduce the impact of the disease and potentially protect the elderly, but it probably won’t end the pandemic.”