Republican challenger leads longtime incumbent state Rep. Joe Petrarca

Republican challenger Jason Silvis maintained a 6-point lead over 13-term incumbent state Rep. Joe Petrarca on Thursday morning in Pennsylvania’s 55th state House District, according to unofficial and incomplete returns.

Silvis, a film stuntman, has collected 53.1% of the votes counted compared with Petrarca’s 46.9%, a margin of about 1,800 votes, according to unofficial results from the Pennsylvania Department of State.

Silvis’ lead has narrowed slightly since Wednesday night, when he held a lead of about 3,200 votes. It was not known how many ballots remained uncounted.

Both candidates live in Washington Township. Neither responded to requests for comment.

Silvis sought to persuade voters they would benefit from a change in the person occupying the seat, which Petrarca has held since 1995. Before that, Petrarca’s father had the seat since 1973. If elected, Silvis indicated he wouldn’t expect to serve more than three two-year terms.

Petrarca has touted his experience in Harrisburg, where he chairs the House’s Children and Youth Committee and serves on caucuses for the coal and steel industries and for firefighters and emergency services.

But there’s a pattern this year with incumbent Democrats — some of them longstanding officials — being ousted by Republican challengers.

State Sen. Jim Brewster, D-McKeesport, was trailing by 1.3 percentage points to challenger Nicole Ziccarelli, a Lower Burrell Republican. Brewster has held the seat, which represents parts of Westmoreland and Allegheny counties, since 2010.

In the 37th Senatorial District, which includes parts of Allegheny and Washington counties, Republican challenger Devlin Robinson had 52.6% of the vote to Democratic incumbent state Sen. Pam Iovino’s 47.4%.

House Minority Leader Frank Dermody, D-Oakmont, was trailing Oakmont Councilwoman Carrie DelRosso by about 4 percentage points in the state House’s 33rd District. Dermody, 69, has held the seat since 1991.

All of the races had tightened since Wednesday, as more mail-in ballots were processed.

It’s no surprise, said Philip Harold, a political science professor at Robert Morris University: it’s the “down-ballot effect” because of the popularity of President Trump in rural parts of Western Pennsylvania and throughout Appalachia. Candidates in the party of the president are, in a sense, “rewarded,” he said.

Ballots are being counted, and no results are final — but should these seats flip, Harold said, the races could have significant effect on the area.

“These kinds of dynasties require people regularly voting for incumbents, and you use the advantage of incumbency to just keep the seat in perpetuity, as long as you’re not doing something scandalous,” Harold said. “This could be a pivot point for these races.”

Trump is leading in Pennsylvania, but Joe Biden has been closing the gap as mail ballots are tallied. Harold said regardless of whether Trump wins or loses this race, the loyalty of his base and the closeness of the local races could indicate a possible shift or realignment in the Republican party.

“There’s going to be a standard there for Republicans that’s going to reflect the coalition of the Western PA, blue dog, working class, traditionally Democratic base,” he said.

Joe DiSarro, a political science professor at Washington & Jefferson College, agreed — there’s been a huge shift, evident by “Trump populism,” of some conservative Democrats switching parties.

“There seems to be a fundamental realignment in Western Pennsylvania of conservative Democrats — union, blue-collar Democrats — that have permanently moved into the Republican Party,” DiSarro said. “The realignment in Western Pennsylvania, with the exception of Pittsburgh, I think, is a primary reason for so many incumbents losing … (the voters) no longer feel comfortable voting for a Democrat.”

About 62,000 people live in the 55th District, which includes Apollo, Leechburg and Parks Township in Armstrong County; Saltsburg in Indiana County; and the Westmoreland County communities of Avonmore, Bell, Derry Borough, Derry Township, East Vandergrift, Hyde Park, Latrobe, Loyalhanna, New Alexandria, Oklahoma, Vandergrift, Washington Township, West Leechburg and Youngstown, along with part of Unity Township.