Biden lead holds steady at 6 points in latest Franklin & Marshall College Poll

Former vice president Joe Biden continued to hold a six-point lead among likely voters in Pennsylvania last week as the number of undecided voters declined, a poll Franklin & Marshall College Poll found. The poll of 558 likely Pennsylvania voters, which was conducted from Oct. 19-25, contained a margin of error of 5 percentage points.

It found 50% of voters contacted supported Biden, compared to 44% who supported President Donald Trump. That left about 5% undecided or supporting a third party candidate.

That’s a dramatic departure from the same point in 2016, when about 14% of voters here were undecided a week before the election.

One of the findings that may give the Trump campaign cause for concern is the change in voting patterns from 2016, said G. Terry Madonna, a political scientist and director of the Franklin & Marshall College Poll.

Not only is Biden polling stronger than Hillary Clinton did the Philadelphia area, where she won in 2016, he also is polling stronger in the places like Southwestern Pennsylvania, where Trump won in counties Democrats controlled, such as Beaver, Cambria, Fayette, Washington and Westmoreland, by double digits.

There appears to be little room for movement along party lines, Madonna said. Republicans support Trump by 88%, the same margin Democrats support Biden, he said.

Democrats Deborah Johnson, a 67-year-old York County retiree, and Everett Clark, 57, a property manager from Churchill, are staunch Biden supporters. Both have cast their ballots — Johnson by mail and Clark at an Allegheny County drop box last week.

Johnson said she can’t stand Trump.

“I believe that Biden is a very honest and caring man that would do a great job with taking care of the United States for everybody. … I think (running mate Kamala) Harris, I think she’s great. I love some of her ideas and things,” Johnson said.

“I think Biden is a decent man and he’ll try to unite the nation instead of divide it,” Clark said. “Just look at the way Trump talks and acts. I’m talking basic morals, and he has none.”

He is dismayed by the president’s approach to the global pandemic.

“Right now, the most critical thing is the coronavirus,” Clark said. “We have to get that under control and get the economy moving again, safely.”

Republicans George Deemer, 67, of Derry, and Dorothy Rice, 97, of New Castle, said virus or no virus, they will go to the polls in person Tuesday to vote for Trump.

Deemer, a retiree, cited Trump’s record on the economy.

“There was less unemployment, more employment,” he said. “My pocketbook was fatter, there was jobs springing up everywhere, everything was getting done, the infrastructure. I think he’s a better president than we’ve had in the past 16 years.”

Rice likewise cites the economy as her top reason for supporting Trump.

“I think he’s done more good for this country than any president,” she said. “I have voted in every election since 1944, and I’ve always taken an interest in what’s going on in government and politics. I don’t know of another president who has done so much good for the country, and I’m definitely supporting him.”

Marilyn Smith, a 71-year-old Beaver County Republican, said her first vote for Trump in 2016 was a vote against Clinton. But she’s warmed up to his presidency and says “it’s good to have someone who knows business and finance in the White House.”

Matthew Briner, 35, of Harrisburg, who had no party affiliation, was among the 56% of Biden voters in the poll who said they are voting first and foremost against Trump. He’s already cast his ballot by mail.

“I was going to vote for any of the Democratic candidates, regardless of who got the nomination — he’s not Donald Trump,” Briner said.

Pollsters: This time’s different

Some experts say attitudes like that could be the chink in Biden’s lead — which is just above the margin of error in many polls.

The candidates and the pollsters who follow them have had a laser-like focus on Pennsylvania voters this year. They consider the Keystone State, with its 20 Electoral College votes, a must-win for whoever will occupy the White House next year.

In 2016, the state that many polls predicted would be an easy win for Clinton broke for Trump by less than 1%.

Madonna, whose 2016 pre-election poll had Clinton up 11 points a week before the election, said much of the uncertainty that characterized that election has disappeared as Trump made the transition from an outsider to a president with a record. He can’t foresee any new developments that could influence the Nov. 3 election the way some believe then-FBI Director James Comey’s announcement about Clinton’s emails did 11 days before the 2016 election.

Josh Clinton, a political science professor at Vanderbilt University and member of the American Association of Public Opinion Research, said 2020 has been an altogether different ballgame for pollsters.

“In 2016, one thing that was unique was you had two candidates running who were historically unpopular,” he said. “At this point, nearly 20% of the voters were undecided and you had a record number of third party candidates.”

Moreover, many state polls failed to adjust for the fact that college-educated voters, who were more likely to vote for Clinton, were also more likely to answer polls. Many adjusted their calculations after seeing the difference that made in 2016.

“In New Hampshire, a poll had Clinton up by 14 points with no weighting for education. But when it was weighted for education, it was a head-to-head race there,” Josh Clinton said.

Although experts stress that polls are only a snapshot of the electorate at a point in time, Madonna noted that both national and state polls have been fairly consistent this year.

“Look how steady and consistent the polls have been, with very little variation despite the president having a bad performance on the first debate, covid-19 rates, and the death of Justice Ginsburg and appointment of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. I just don’t know what there is out there that is apt to make the kind of changes we had in 2016,” he said.

Clinton agreed that “the polls have been rock solid this year.”

“But I think the upside of what we saw in 2016 is that people are coming to realize the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day,” Clinton said.