BetMGM Basketball: Compare NCAA Tournament Résumés: Bubble Teams
By BetMGM writer Andrew Doughty /
The 2022 NCAA Tournament will include, for the 12th straight year (and the 11th straight tournament), 68 college basketball teams, 36 of which will earn at-large bids. And for the 11th straight tournament, the lowest-ranked at-large teams will open March Madness at the First Four in Dayton.
With Selection Sunday two and a half weeks away, let’s compare the NCAA Tournament résumés for two bubble teams. First, the quadrant records and road record for the two teams (as of Tuesday, Feb. 22).
|
TEAM |
Q1A |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
ROAD |
|
A |
1-3 |
3-5 |
4-3 |
3-0 |
7-1 |
6-5 |
|
B |
1-0 |
3-3 |
3-4 |
5-2 |
4-0 |
4-6 |
And comparing seven notable metrics for the two teams:
|
TEAM |
NET |
OPP NET |
KPI |
SOR |
BPI |
KP |
SAG |
|
A |
55 |
65 |
47 |
60 |
86 |
52 |
49 |
|
B |
44 |
43 |
45 |
62 |
33 |
42 |
35 |
Who are the teams? And which team should be ranked higher by the selection committee?
Team A: BYU
Team B: Memphis
In my opinion: Memphis should be ranked higher than BYU. And it’s not close.
While the Tigers have a poor road record (4-6 to BYU’s 6-4), identical Quad 1 wins (three), and nearly identical results-based metrics (KPI and SOR), they don’t have a Q4 loss (BYU lost to Pacific) and are dominating the predictive metrics (BPI, KenPOM, and SOR). They’re also 22 spots higher in the committee’s beloved Opponent NET Ranking, which is more important than a team’s NET itself.
The at-large race is, however, close in Bracketology projections.
Memphis is among the Last Four In for ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and the final at-large bid in Bracket Matrix’s aggregate rankings from, as of Feb. 22, 132 different Bracketology projections. BYU, meanwhile, is among Lunardi’s First Four Out and Bracket Matrix’s highest-ranked at-large team.
Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM and host of The Lion’s Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Apple Podcasts and everywhere else. Twitter: @DoughtyBetMGM
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