By BetMGM writer Andrew Doughty /
The 2022 NCAA Tournament will include, for the 12th straight year (and the 11th straight tournament), 68 college basketball teams, 36 of which will earn at-large bids. And for the 11th straight tournament, the lowest-ranked at-large teams will open March Madness at the First Four in Dayton.
With Selection Sunday two and a half weeks away, let’s compare the NCAA Tournament résumés for two bubble teams. First, the quadrant records and road record for the two teams (as of Friday, Feb. 25).
|
TEAM |
Q1A |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
ROAD |
|
A |
1-4 |
1-7 |
4-0 |
10-0 |
5-1 |
6-3 |
|
B |
1-5 |
2-6 |
3-4 |
4-0 |
8-0 |
2-6 |
And comparing seven notable metrics for the two teams:
|
TEAM |
NET |
OPP NET |
KPI |
SOR |
BPI |
KP |
SAG |
|
A |
41 |
43 |
48 |
27 |
34 |
41 |
30 |
|
B |
43 |
66 |
62 |
57 |
40 |
46 |
34 |
Who are the teams? And which team should be ranked higher by the selection committee?
Team A: North Carolina
Team B: Indiana
Based upon the committee’s methodology, North Carolina should be ahead of Indiana. By a mile.
While the Tar Heels have a Q4 home loss to NET-169 Pittsburgh and fewer Quad 1 wins, they’re dominant elsewhere, including the committee’s beloved opponent NET – which is more important than a team’s own NET – and road record.
Indiana hasn’t won a road game in four weeks, a 13-point win at Maryland, and their other road win came against NET-187 Nebraska, the lowest-ranked Big Ten team. North Carolina, meanwhile, is tied for the ninth-most road wins among NET top-50 teams, and has three road wins within the first two quadrants, including a Q1 win at Virginia Tech last week.
In Bracketology projections, the two teams are battling for the final at-large bids. As of Feb. 25, they were both among the Last Four In teams in Bracket Matrix’s aggregate rankings. Of the 126 projections used by Bracket Matrix, North Carolina was included in 97 of them, while Indiana was in 91.
Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM and host of The Lion’s Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Apple Podcasts and everywhere else. Twitter: @DoughtyBetMGM
