Democrats feared Republican efforts to oust Pa. Supreme Court justices. They spent significantly more on the race

The three Pennsylvania Supreme Court justices on the ballot this year, and the Democratic-leaning groups supporting them, appear to have raised and spent exponentially more money than the Republican-backed groups working to oust them.

As of Oct. 20, more than $14 million had been raised in the retention race by the three justices — Christine Donohue, Kevin Dougherty, and David Wecht — and the main groups supporting them.

Full information on spending by groups opposing the justices is not available and might never be, due to loopholes in state campaign finance law, but data from the ad tracking firm AdImpact show spending on pro-retention ads outpaced spending on anti-retention ads 4-1.

Retention races in Pennsylvania are usually sleepy, off-year affairs. Just one justice has been denied retention in state history. Though Donohue, Dougherty, and Wecht were each elected as Democrats in 2015, they are standing for retention in a nonpartisan election. Voters are asked just to pick yes or no.

Ousting the justices was a top priority for Pennsylvania Republicans this cycle. As tens of millions poured into a Supreme Court race in Wisconsin this spring, Democrats feared a similar effort in the commonwealth — even though the GOP’s efforts in Wisconsin were unsuccessful and Supreme Court elections with candidates from both parties tend to be pricier than retention races.

Speaking to a crowd of Montgomery County Democrats in February, Dougherty said, without evidence, that Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and onetime key backer of President Donald Trump, had already invested $1 million. Musk had invested significantly in Pennsylvania during the presidential election and donated to Early Vote Action, a Trump-aligned PAC that this year has worked to oust the justices while engaging in other campaigns across the country.

But as of the final week of the election, it appears the Republican investment may have been smaller than expected — and slowing. And it’s unclear whether the Musk investment claimed by Dougherty ever materialized.

Historically expensive retention race

Despite this, the race appears to have been the second most expensive judicial retention race in U.S. history, said Douglas Keith, founding editor of the State Court Report at the Brennan Center for Justice, a nonpartisan think tank that aims to defend and reform American democracy.

According to campaign finance records, campaign committees for the three justices, and outside spending groups supporting them, had raised more than $14 million by mid-October and had spent nearly $12 million.

About two dozen outside groups spent an additional $5 million in independent expenditures, two-thirds of which went to supporting the judges.

The largest single expenditure was a $900,000 investment in an awareness campaign by the American Civil Liberties Union.

Among the major pro-retention spenders, Pennsylvanians for Judicial Fairness dropped $700,000 on digital ads and direct mail and was joined by three other committees — Buildings Bridges Voter Project PAC, People Power Pennsylvania, and Reproductive Freedom for All — combining for about $1.2 million in spending on advertising, mailers, and consultants.

Full extent of GOP spending is unknown

Much of the Republican-aligned spending was unclear.

The Commonwealth Leaders Fund, a PAC largely funded by Pennsylvania’s richest man, Jeff Yass, raised $1.8 million, according to campaign finance reports.

Citizens for Term Limits, which is affiliated with the Commonwealth Leaders Fund, spent $1.8 million as of Sept. 16 on television and digital ads, texting, production, and emails, according to campaign finance reports.

Another PAC affiliated with Commonwealth Leaders Fund, Commonwealth Partners, has been running advertisements and sending mailers opposing the justices.

Yass, who frequently donates to Republican campaigns, is a cofounder of the Susquehanna International Group, a Bala Cynwyd-based trading firm.

As of Friday, Commonwealth Partners had reported a $2,300 expenditure for a billboard opposing retention, but further independent expenditures for mailers from both organizations were not posted in Pennsylvania’s campaign finance database as of Friday afternoon.

Republican spending on TV peaked in September

Data tracked by AdImpact show that Citizens for Term Limits spent $1.7 million on TV ads opposing the justices while an additional $350,000 was spent by Commonwealth Leaders Fund. An additional $700,000 was spent by the RSLC Judicial Fairness Initiative, an offshoot of the GOP’s primary committee used to support Republican candidates at the state and local levels.

Groups backing the justices, on the other hand, have spent roughly $12 million on ads, according to the AdImpact data, which include spending by groups that do not file campaign finance reports.

Republican spending has been declining for weeks. Groups opposing the justices spent their most of the cycle, around $577,000, on TV ads the week of Sept. 30 before a steady decline in the weeks since.

Democrats, on the other hand, peaked in TV spending the week of Oct. 21 and are preparing for a hectic final week of campaigning.

Former President Barack Obama posted to Facebook on Wednesday urging residents to retain the justices. And Democrats scheduled a slate of events for the weekend to get out the vote, including visits by Democratic National Committee chair Ken Martin and several events headlined by Lt. Gov. Austin Davis.

The slowed GOP spending might be an indication of poor internal polling by anti-retention groups, said Keith with the Brennan Center.

“For all I know, they’ve determined through polling or other means that their chances of ousting the justices are not particularly high and so it’s not worth the investment,” Keith said. “It is very rare for a justice to be unseated in a retention election in Pennsylvania.”