Fall election could determine future of abortion rights in Pennsylvania

The future of legal abortion access in Pennsylvania could hinge on the outcome of the general election in November after a draft opinion from the U.S. Supreme Court suggests the court is poised to overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade case.

On Monday, Politico published a story containing a leaked draft opinion from the high court. Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. said Tuesday that the leaked opinion is authentic but not final.

Pennsylvania law currently bans abortions after about 24 weeks of pregnancy. Any abortion ban or new restrictions in Pennsylvania would have to move through the state Legislature and be signed by the governor.

According to The Guttmacher Institute, overturning Roe would lead to abortion bans in 26 states, as 22 states already have laws on the books to ban or severely limit abortions in nearly all circumstances that would come into effect once Roe is overturned. Another four states are very likely to pass abortion ban laws in the near future.

Gov. Tom Wolf, a Democrat, has repeatedly vetoed abortion restriction bills during his two-term tenure. On Monday, he reiterated that he will “veto any anti-choice legislation that lands on my desk.”

Wolf’s term is up at the end of 2022, and this year’s election to replace him is hotly contested. State Attorney General Josh Shapiro is the only Democrat running for governor. Shapiro said he would veto any effort to ban abortion in the state.

“Abortion is legal in Pennsylvania under state law. It will remain legal, no matter what SCOTUS rules,” wrote Shapiro in a tweet. “The only way women lose their rights in Pennsylvania is if our Republican Legislature passes an abortion ban and a Governor signs it. I’m going to fight like hell, and veto that bill.”

Republicans in the state legislature have repeatedly passed abortion restriction bills that end up being vetoed by Wolf. If a Republican governor were to win in 2022 and the state legislature remained in Republican control, abortion restrictions or an abortion ban could be enacted.

According to the Pro-Life Coalition of Pennsylvania, eight of nine Republican candidates for governor have indicated support for a “heartbeat bill,” which would outlaw abortions after a fetal heartbeat can be detected. Medical doctors and abortion-access advocates argue heartbeat bills amount to a near-total ban on abortions, as fetal heartbeats can be detected about six weeks after gestation.

Republican candidates Lou Barletta, Joe Gale, Charlie Gerow, Melissa Hart, Doug Mastriano, Bill McSwain, Dave White, and Nche Zama all said they support passing a heartbeat bill in a questionnaire to Pro-Life Coalition. Of those eight, only Barletta and McSwain said they support a “rape exception” to abortion restrictions. Jake Corman did not answer the coalition’s questionnaire.

The leaked draft opinion in effect states there is no constitutional right to abortion services. It would allow individual states to more heavily regulate or outright ban the procedure.

“We hold that Roe and Casey must be overruled,” it states, referencing the 1992 case Planned Parenthood v. Casey that affirmed Roe’s finding of a constitutional right to abortion services but allowed states to place some constraints on the practice. “It is time to heed the Constitution and return the issue of abortion to the people’s elected representatives.”

Attempts to pass abortion bans in Pennsylvania could also be thwarted if the state House or the state Senate flip into Democratic control. After maps were redrawn this year, that has become a stronger possibility, but forecasters still predict those chambers will likely remain in Republican control after the 2022 election.

Federal action could also have an effect on abortion access in Pennsylvania. If Congress were to codify, or protect, abortion rights nationally, then any future Pennsylvania bans would be moot.

The Democratic-controlled U.S. House has already passed a law to codify abortion access into law, but it has stalled in the Senate. To pass in the Senate, Democrats would have to end the legislative filibuster so that 50 votes would suffice to pass the bill, instead of the current 60. However, only 48 Democrats currently support that bill.

The two Democrats who have not yet indicated support to codify Roe protections are U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin from West Virginia and U.S. Sen. Bob Casey from Pennsylvania.

Casey has shown support for ending the filibuster, and in a released statement on Tuesday, Casey said if the draft opinion becomes final, he has “serious concerns about what overturning almost 50 years of legal precedent” would mean for women in states with abortion bans.

“Congress should be working to reduce the number of abortions and unintended pregnancies and doing much more to support women and families,” said Casey.

All Democratic U.S. Senate candidates — John Fetterman, Malcolm Kenyatta, Alex Khalil, and Conor Lamb — have called for ending the filibuster and codifying Roe protections into law. Kenyatta and Khalil have also suggested it is time to expand the number of Supreme Court seats to dilute the court’s current conservative majority.

Republican Senate candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz approved of the apparent court opinion to overturn Roe. “Abortion laws should be left up to the American people and their elected representatives,” said Oz in a statement.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.