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How will GOP's performance in midterms impact Trump's brand, influence within party?

Ryan Deto
| Thursday, November 10, 2022 6:01 a.m.
AP
Former President Donald Trump speaks at a rally, Oct. 9, 2022, in Mesa, Ariz. Trump has been teasing another presidential run since before he left the White House. But aides to the former president are now preparing for a 2024 campaign that could be announced soon after next week’s midterms.

Democrats had a strong showing in midterm elections across the country and particularly in Pennsylvania, defying many expectations.

Many swing seats went in favor of Democrats, including in races for governor, U.S. Senate and the U.S. House. Pennsylvania Democrats also expressed optimism Wednesday about possibly gaining control of the state House for the first time in 12 years.

Leading up to Election Day, many Republicans were anticipating a “red wave” of victories. Some predicted that the party’s most prominent figure, former President Donald Trump, would quickly move back into the spotlight — and announce another run for the White House — if candidates he endorsed for an array of offices won.

But many Trump-endorsed candidates underperformed or lost in races across the country, including Trump-endorsed candidates in several of Pennsylvania’s highest-profile races.

U.S. Senate candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz, gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano and Northeastern Pennsylvania congressional candidate Jim Bognet all lost their races.

Trump’s brand

Lee Irwin, political science professor at Duquesne University, said he thinks Trump’s brand could take a hit in Pennsylvania and nationally after the midterms. He doesn’t expect that to change how Trump campaigns or focuses on Pennsylvania.

“The Trump brand is definitely damaged a bit,” Irwin said.

Trump, who opted not to announce a 2024 bid for the White House the night before the election, faced a particularly rough media assessment in post-mortems of the midterms.

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Fox News’ website ran a steady stream of stories with damaging headlines such as “Trump-endorsed Vance doesn’t mention former president in victory speech,” “Republican Brad Raffensperger, reviled by Trump, wins again in Georgia” and “Conservatives point finger at Trump after GOP’s underwhelming elections results.”

In Pennsylvania, Irwin said Trump might have suffered a self-inflicted wound by focusing his endorsements too much on personal loyalty and not on the viability of candidates.

“That is probably fine for him,” Irwin said. “But the Republican Party is probably going to get tired of losing races that you should have won.”

For his part, Trump was reportedly furious at those close to him telling him to endorse Oz, according to New York Times reporter Maggie Haberman, who also reported that people are now pushing Trump to reschedule a potential presidential run announcement.

Trump said Monday at a rally in Ohio that he would be making a “very big” announcement on Nov. 15.

It’s about ‘more than just negative partisanship’

Oz and Mastriano had what turned out to be insurmountable flaws, according to Rob Gleason, who served as chairman of Pennsylvania’s Republican Party from 2006 to 2016.

He said Mastriano couldn’t raise money and was too far right to win a statewide race in Pennsylvania.

Gleason praised Oz for working hard during the campaign, but said he believes Pennsylvania is too parochial to vote for a candidate who moved into the state just to run for office.

He said Trump’s influence in the Republican primary made it harder to nominate candidates that would have fared better against Democrats.

A lack of Republican leadership and a late Trump endorsement of Mastriano made it easier for him to secure the nomination.

“It let an ultra-conservative come to power,” Gleason said of Mastriano.

For the first time in many years, the Republican State Committee didn’t endorse any candidates before the primary. Gleason said he thinks that was a mistake.

He acknowledged that endorsements don’t carry the same weight as they used to, but he said the committee “fumbled the ball” and created a power vacuum that grew out of control.

“They should take more of an active role,” Gleason said of state Republican leadership. “When I was chairman, we had firm control of the party and nomination process.”

Gleason said local party officials and leaders can help vet candidates and guide voters to better general election nominees. He said the sting of Republican defeats might encourage some to consider taking a more active role.

Gleason acknowledged that Trump is still the most popular and prominent figure among Pennsylvania Republicans. He doesn’t expect the midterm results to change that very quickly.

Shippensburg University political science professor Alison Dagnes said some GOP candidates also might have been hurt because they focused less on key issues that voters care about than they did on negative partisanship and grievances.

Dagnes said Republicans might have been attempting to emulate Trump’s 2016 run, but the midterms show a different approach might be needed going forward.

“I think there are a lot of really good, sharp conservative candidates out there that can articulate a platform and policy agenda that is appealing to Republican voters that is more than just negative partisanship,” she said.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.


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