Medical experts not alarmed by recent rise in Pa. covid cases

The number of new covid-19 cases is increasing in Pennsylvania, but the uptick — fueled by the highly contagious delta variant — is not yet cause for alarm among experts in the Pittsburgh region.

In the past week, there have been 2,930 new cases of the virus reported by the state. The count has not been that high since June 12, when 2,997 cases were registered in a week’s time.

This week’s new case total is 82.4% more than just one week ago, when the state recorded 1,606 cases.

Pittsburgh-based infectious disease expert Dr. Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, calls it a “two track pandemic.”

“If you’re someone who is fully vaccinated, the pandemic is basically over for you in terms of your risk of getting covid-19, especially severe covid-19 or being a vector of spread for covid-19. The vaccines are just that good,” he said.

“But if you’re unvaccinated, we’re still seeing cases. So you will likely see this pandemic of the unvaccinated or this two America rhetoric where there are pockets of nonvaccinated individuals, where we’re still going to have a high burden of covid-19 that’s, even if things are open, going to make life more difficult than it has to be.”

This summer, indeed, has seen society opening up again. Earlier this month, the Pirates held a second opening day with PNC Park restoring pre-covid capacity on the number of fans allowed in the ballpark. Theaters, restaurants and concert venues have followed suit.

The recent rise in cases has some people worried society could partially or completely shut down again. But Allegheny Health Network’s chief medical officer, Dr. Donald Whiting, does not anticipate that happening.

“In areas like Western Pennsylvania, where people have been very good about getting vaccinated, that’s not a likelihood at all,” Whiting said. “In Missouri or parts of Florida or some other states where there’s a 30% vaccination rate, they’re the ones reliving what it was like a year and a half ago when (the pandemic) first started. It really is the unvaccinated people who are keeping this trend going.”

In the past two days, the state has reported daily cases of 569 on Tuesday, 525 on Wednesday — that’s 1,094 cases. It’s nearly as many cases as the state recorded from June 25-July 1: 1,216 cases.

And, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the delta variant is overwhelmingly the dominant strain in the Pennsylvania region. Data from July 4-17 shows 69.4% of all cases in Region 3 (Delaware, D.C., Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia and Pennsylvania) are of the delta variant; the second most cases are the alpha variant (18.3%). Health experts view the delta variant as a more contagious version of the virus.

The CDC and President Biden are pleading with Americans to get vaccinated, but the Food and Drug Administration still hasn’t formally approved any vaccine. While that might be responsible for the some of the population’s vaccine hesitancy, Adalja said it’s still not a good reason to avoid getting vaccinated.

“These aren’t the first vaccines to be available on an emergency use authorization,” he said. “In the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, we gave people the anti-viral that was available on an emergency use authorization. It’s just that, for a vaccine, you need six months of data for a full biological license. That time has just elapsed, so now the clock starts ticking.”

Whiting said he doesn’t anticipate FDA approval for the vaccine for another six months.

“When the FDA approves things, there’s a process and there’s data over time,” he said. “We’re past the emergency part. It’s out there, and it’s effectively working very, very well. A lot of places are mandating it based on the overwhelming clinical evidence of who’s being hospitalized and who is being most affected by the virus now and that’s the unvaccinated.”

Whiting said there currently are 18 covid cases in all of AHN’s hospitals. And while there still is discussion of whether booster shots will be needed, data shows that, even with the delta variant, those who are vaccinated are safe.

“The simple solution is just get vaccinated, and that ends it all,” Whiting said.

So far, the uptick in cases is not being seen in hospitalizations and deaths, with both statistics continuing to be near their lowest points of the pandemic.

Cases

Of Pennsylvania’s new cases in the past seven days, 2,179 were confirmed through PCR tests, while 751 were listed as probable. Health officials define a probable case as one in which a patient has a positive viral antigen test or covid symptoms with a “high-risk exposure” to someone who has been confirmed to have coronavirus.

The state’s daily average of new cases is now 414; on July 1, it was 174. To date, Pennsylvania has recorded 1,217,857 covid cases, with 1,019,198 of them confirmed through PCR testing.

Allegheny County added 284 new covid cases in the past week. Of the newest cases, 200 were confirmed and 84 were probable.

The county’s daily case average has jumped to 41, up from a low of 11 per day as recently as July 6. Allegheny County also has seen a marked rise recently. In the past two days, the county has recorded 125 new cases. Just last week, it took the county seven days to record that many (134).

“These numbers are concerning, but not surprising,” said Dr. Debra Bogen, director of the Allegheny County Health Department. “Give the virus an opening, and it will enter. Unfortunately, we are giving it an opening, not only here, but across the country. The delta variant in combination with many unvaccinated people has resulted in this new wave of cases.”

Since the pandemic’s start, Allegheny County has recorded 102,398 cases, with 77,483 confirmed.

Westmoreland County has reported 79 cases in the past week, with 41 cases confirmed and 38 probable. The case rate has not affected Westmoreland County as much, with the daily average now at 11, up from just three July 10.

The county has recorded 34,563 total cases, with 23,208 confirmed since March 2020.

Here’s a look at the total covid case numbers for other Western Pennsylvania counties, along with the increase there in the past week:

Armstrong: 6,019 (+4)

Beaver: 15,635 (+48)

Butler: 17,701 (+41)

Fayette: 13,475 (+17)

Indiana: 6,444 (+17)

Somerset: 8,095 (+5)

Washington: 18,029 (+49)

Vaccinations

On the vaccination front, the CDC reports there are 8,238,751 Pennsylvanians with at least one dose of a covid vaccine — that’s 64.4% of the state’s total population. There are 6,575,932 (51.4%) who are considered fully vaccinated. Of the state’s adult population (18 and older), there are 7,837,108 (77.1%) with at least one dose and 6,298,280 (62%) fully vaccinated.

In Allegheny County, there are 727,121 residents (59.4%) with at least one dose and 665,827 (54.4%) fully vaccinated. Of those 18 and older, the percentages rise to 66.9% and 73%, respectively.

In Westmoreland County, 169,939 residents (46.5%) have at least one dose, while 156,748 (42.9%) are fully vaccinated. Of those 18 and older, the percentages rise to 56.9% and 52.5%, respectively.

Hospitalizations

According to data from OpenSource PA, the state has 302 covid patients in hospitals, an increase of 57 in the past week. While up, the numbers are still well below the nearly 2,700 hospitalized in mid-May.

Of those hospitalized in the state, 63 of them are in intensive care units and 31 are on ventilators.

In Allegheny County, there are 43 people hospitalized for coronavirus, with 12 in ICUs and five on ventilators.

In Westmoreland County, hospitals are treating just two covid patients, with neither of them in the ICU but one on a ventilator.

Deaths

Pennsylvania has reported 41 covid-related deaths in the past week’s time. Of those, 36 were from July, one from June, four from May and one from December. The state adjusted its figured and removed a death from April 2020.

To date, there have been 27,813 covid deaths in the state.

In Allegheny County, health officials reported there have been seven covid deaths in the past week. Of those, all but one were in the 65 and older group; the seventh was in the 50-64 age group.

After going 11 days without a covid-related death, Westmoreland County saw two recorded in the past week, bringing its total to date to 781.