Monday’s confirmation by U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Lehigh Valley, that he will call it quits in 2022 and not run to become the next governor of Pennsylvania set the stage for an early scramble among candidates now that two statewide seats will be open.

“All of the Republican politicos just assumed he was running for governor, and a lot of talk was who would run for his seat in the Senate,” said veteran Republican political consultant Christopher Nicholas. “Now, we have to recalibrate all of that. One open seat is a lot, let alone two on both sides.”

With two of the state’s biggest political prizes up for grabs, as Toomey steps aside and Gov. Tom Wolf completes his second — and final — term, experts agree 2022 could change the political landscape in Harrisburg and across Pennsylvania in ways that no one anticipated just a day ago.

Toomey is Pennsylvania’s sole Republican to hold statewide elective office outside of the state courts. He served three terms in the U.S. House of Representatives before being elected to two terms in the Senate. He said 18 years is enough.

In making his announcement, Toomey made good on his prior commitment to term limits. In 2015, he co-sponsored a failed measure to amend the U.S. Constitution to limit members to three terms in the House and two terms in the Senate.

Although Toomey’s announcement set tongues wagging and phones ringing in Republican circles, it likely changed little on the other side of the aisle, said Larry Ceisler, a Philadelphia-based public affairs consultant.

“Whereas for the Republicans, every Tom, Dick or Mary who ever aspired to statewide office is going to put their name in,” said Ceisler, a Democrat who grew up in Washington County. “The days of Republican State Committee having discipline over their primaries were coming to an end, and now it is extinguished.”

A fiscal conservative, Toomey has taken issue with some of President Trump’s trade and tariff decisions. Yet, overall, he has been firmly in Trump’s corner. He supported the 2017 tax reform act and the Supreme Court appointment of Justice Brett Kavanaugh. He voted against impeachment and said he supports the president’s effort to name a new Supreme Court justice before the Nov. 3 election.

He also said he supports the president’s reelection campaign and will do whatever the campaign asks of him.

Meanwhile, he said his top priorities include knocking down barriers to allow American companies to sell domestic products around the world and making the 2017 revisions to the tax code that are set to expire instead become permanent.

In July, Toomey called Trump’s pardon of Roger Stone “a mistake.” Trump then disparaged Toomey on Twitter, calling him a “RINO,” or Republican In Name Only. Toomey dismissed the episode.

“I’m not responsible for the president’s Twitter feed,” Toomey said.

State Sen. Kim Ward, R-Hempfield, the state Senate’s highest-ranking woman, said Toomey’s departure was not unanticipated in GOP circles. She noted he never firmly committed to the 2022 gubernatorial race and said his early announcement could benefit others who have heretofore stood in the shadows.

She said Toomey’s “definitive announcement makes room for others,” such as state Sen. Camera Bartolotta, R-Washington County, and state Sen. Doug Mastriano, R-Franklin County.

Those were two of many names being bantered about Monday.

“Toomey getting out just opened a lane on a road that was blocked up until yesterday. Several members of the House probably are looking at both jobs,” Ceisler said. “You have Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R-Peters) from out your way. You have Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Pottsville) who was in Gov. Corbett’s cabinet, Jeff Bartos who ran for lieutenant governor, Bill McSwain, the U.S. attorney for Eastern District. Another one is Paul Mango, who ran against Scott Wagner (in 2018 Republican primary for governor). Rep. Scott Perry (R-York County) — win or lose his reelection for Congress, I think he’ll take a look at it.”

Jeff Coleman, founder of Churchill Strategies, a Harrisburg-based communications firm, is a former Republican lawmaker who served two terms in the Pennsylvania House representing the Alle-Kiski Valley. He said Toomey’s exit paves the way for a new generation of Republican politicians who have come of age in the era of Trump and social media.

“Pat Toomey always had the ability to find the fiscal pulse of Republican voters. He knew with the right set of issues and principles you could be successful in a Republican primary,” Coleman said. “From 2016 forward, this is about the optics of a certain kind of populism with some kind of conservatism. It is one part personality type, another part funding and a third part the mastery of social media tools. What Trump has done is created a cottage industry of consultants in every area of data, social media, grassroots organization and a new grandstand full of grassroots groups that a candidate has to sing to.”

While many believe Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro should have the Democratic nomination for governor locked up, provided he wins reelection next month, there are a number of Democrats likely mulling the Senate race.

Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who lost the Democratic Senate primary four years ago, state Treasurer Joe Torsella, and a number of Pennsylvania Democrats in Congress have been mentioned as possible contenders, including Rep. Conor Lamb of Mt. Lebanon, Rep. Brendan Boyle of Philadelphia, and Reps. Madeleine Dean and Chrissy Houlahan, both of whom represent suburban Philadelphia districts.

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