Who gets blamed for a shutdown? Polls show nation is divided

With a government shutdown on the horizon, a series of polls released a day before the lights are set to go dark offer a divided picture of how Americans are viewing the crisis — and who they think is most to blame.

In two national surveys released Tuesday, Americans were more likely to blame Republicans than Democrats for a government shutdown, though results were mixed as to who would be considered most at fault. In a separate poll released the same day, Americans had a gloomy view of much of government, with more negative than positive takes on President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance and congressional leaders on both sides of the aisle.

The federal government on Tuesday is inching closer by the hour to a midnight shutdown, after congressional leaders failed to come to a resolution in a last-ditch White House meeting with the president on Monday. Absent any unexpected breakthrough, federal funding will expire and a shutdown will start at 12:01 a.m. on Oct. 1.

In a five-day New York Times survey, most U.S. voters surveyed said both parties would be at fault for a shutdown, at 33%. Yet between the two parties, a little more than a quarter of respondents, 26%, said they would blame congressional Republicans and President Donald Trump, and 19% pointed their fingers at the Democrats. Another 21% said they had not heard enough about the shutdown to say who was responsible.

The poll was conducted Sept. 22 through 27, surveying 1,313 registered voters.

Independent voters held an even dimmer view of Republicans in the survey, with respondents twice as likely to assign blame to Trump and the GOP than to Democrats. Though respondents considered Democrats less at fault than Republicans, two-thirds said Democrats should not shut down the government if their demands are not met.

For weeks, Democrats have been urging Republicans to address a list of requests in exchange for their votes to keep the government open. The primary sticking point is Democrats’ push to reverse recent Medicaid cuts passed by congressional Republicans and to extend enhanced health insurance subsidies that are set to expire at the end of the year.

Opinions of congressional Republicans were harsher in a Marist Poll, conducted Sept. 22 through 26 among 1,477 U.S. adults. Nearly four in 10 Americans said Republicans would be to blame for the shutdown, at 38%, while another 31% said they blamed both parties. As in the New York Times survey, Democrats were the third most likely to be blamed, at 27%. Four percent of respondents said they would not blame either political party.

In a Pew Research Center survey of 3,445 U.S. adults, respondents shared broadly unfavorable views of congressional leaders, though opinions were divided along party lines.

More Democrats disapproved than approved of their own party’s leaders’ job performance in Congress, with 59% disapproving and 40% approving. The pollster said it marked the first time Democrats held such negative opinions in more than a decade of Pew Research Center surveys. In the last such survey, in 2023, these figures were nearly the reverse: A total of 61% of Democrats approved of their congressional leaders’ job performance and 37% disapproved.

Conversely, Republicans in the poll gave their party’s leadership in Congress a much higher approval rating than in recent years: 69% of Republicans approved of the job that GOP congressional leaders are doing. That’s up from 54% approval in 2023.

Of the four Capitol Hill leaders, Democratic Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer had the lowest marks of the bunch: a 50% total disapproval rating and 21% approval.

When asked about their views of Trump, 58% of respondents had an unfavorable view of the president, 40% had a favorable view, findings that line up with the president’s approval ratings. The Pew survey found 51% of Americans view Vance unfavorably, while 40% see him favorably. Another 8% said they had never heard of him.