SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico — Officials in the northern Caribbean warned Thursday of heavy rain and dangerous swells as Tropical Storm Erin approached the region.
The storm is expected to remain over open waters and move north-northeast of islands including Antigua and Barbuda, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
Erin was located about 890 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands. It had maximum sustained wind of 60 mph and was moving west at 17 mph.
The long-term track for Erin remains uncertain. Hurricane expert @DrRickKnabb breaks down what the models are showing and why interests in the Caribbean, U.S. East Coast and Bermuda need to monitor the forecast: pic.twitter.com/6vGtlhNKbA
— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) August 14, 2025
Erin is forecast to become a hurricane by Friday and strengthen into a Category 3 storm by late Saturday, which would mark the first major storm this season.
“Erin is moving into an area of the Atlantic primed for rapid intensification. The waters are incredibly warm,” said Alex DaSilva, lead hurricane expert for AccuWeather.
Tropical-storm force winds could occur in parts of the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend, forecasters said.
“There is still a greater than normal uncertainty about what impacts Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda in the long range,” the hurricane center said.
Hurricane specialist and storm surge expert Michael Lowry said nearly all models have Erin turning “safely east of the broader U.S. next week.”
Erin is the fifth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
Forecasters are expecting another unusually busy season for the Atlantic, with predictions calling for six to 10 hurricanes, with up to half reaching major status.
