Tropical Storm Elsa drenches Cuba. Track nudges west, likely easing impact on Florida Keys

MIAMI — South Florida got its first taste of Tropical Storm Elsa on Monday afternoon as the outermost bands began to lash the region with brief, intense bouts of rain likely to last through Tuesday.

The storm’s projected track jogged a bit west early Monday — easing the threat for South Florida, including most of the Lower Florida Keys, which now appear likely to see a windy, wet sideswipe rather than a direct hit from a small system that’s expected to strengthen after crossing Cuba.

Elsa’s path took it over most of central Cuba on Monday — where nearly 200,000 people have been evacuated and heavy rains were sweeping the island — before it’s expected to reemerge in the Florida Straits early Tuesday morning. On Monday, storm surge and tropical storm warnings were extended north up the state and west to the Big Bend area. The easternmost part of the Panhandle was under a tropical storm watch.

Its potential Florida landfall site also shifted farther north overnight.

The Tropical Storm Warning along the Florida west coast has been extended northward and westward to the Ochlockonee River. #Elsa pic.twitter.com/5W1fyW4uv1

— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) July 5, 2021

As of the 5 p.m. EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Elsa appeared on track to make landfall in Florida in Horseshoe Beach, north of the Suwannee River, Wednesday morning. It was about 45 miles southeast of Havana and 130 miles south of Key West.

The storm weakened as it made landfall in Cuba to 50 mph maximum sustained winds that extended only 70 miles from the center. Its pace held steady at 14 mph. Elsa’s wind field also shrunk, with the strongest winds mostly within 60 miles of its center.

Cuba evacuated hundreds of thousands of people from the southern provinces in advance of the storm, which drenched the area in flooding rains on Sunday and Monday. Power and phone service were reported down in parts of the country but it was too early to get damage assessments.

In Havana — which may experience some of Elsa’s strongest winds — hundreds of people were evacuated from buildings that are considered unsafe, especially in older areas of the city, the Civil Defense office said. They fear gusty winds could topple some structures that have fallen into disrepair. The storm already has been blamed for two deaths in the Dominican Republic and one in St. Lucia, and crushed crops in Haiti.

BREAKING: #Tropical Storm #Elsa has made landfall in western Cuba's Matanzas Province with maximum estimated winds of 60 mph. pic.twitter.com/l9yjvIudKR

— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) July 5, 2021

A Tropical Storm warning is in effect for Havana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos and Matanzas. The office discontinued a tropical storm warning that had been in effect for the provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Holguín, Las Tunas, Camagüey and Ciego de Ávila.

As of the 11 a.m. ET advisory, Elsa was still moving northwest at 14 miles per hour, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Outer rain bands were already reaching the lower Florida Keys at around 1 p.m., according to the Weather Channel.

“Some slight weakening is likely while Elsa crosses west-central Cuba today. Restrengthening over the Gulf of Mexico is likely to be limited,” forecasters wrote in the 11 a.m. advisory.

The storm got slightly stronger overnight as it moved over very warm waters on the coast of Cuba, but continued to shrink. It’s expected to weaken as it moves over Cuba, according to INSMET.

Cuban civil defense authorities reported some damage to agriculture in the southern Granma province, where rain soaked fields where vegetables hadn’t been harvested yet.

President Migue Díaz-Canel asked people to remain vigilant and follow storm preparedness guidelines. He has asked repeatedly for people to respect social distancing even if sheltering in the homes of family members or at public shelters as covid-19 cases continue to rise.

Forecasters said they’ll have a better idea of exactly how Elsa will affect Florida after it finishes crossing Cuba. The latest prediction calls for Elsa’s maximum sustained winds to climb back to 65 mph before it makes landfall.

“Some restrengthening of the cyclone is likely after it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, but vertical shear associated with a broad upper-level trough over the Gulf is likely to limit intensification,” forecasters wrote in the 5 p.m. advisory.

South Florida was firmly out of the cone of uncertainty, but forecasters said gusty winds and heavy rain were still possible through Wednesday as the storm grinds up the west coast. The northernmost fringe bands swept across Southeast Florida later in the afternoon — nothing major, but Florida Power & Light was already reporting just over 150 power outages Monday evening in Broward County. Miami will experience its gustiest winds (around 25 mph) midmorning Tuesday, according to the National Weather Service.

The Lower Keys could start to feel Elsa’s winds as early as Monday night, but more likely early Tuesday morning. The National Weather Service showed Key West could see maximum sustained winds in the low 40s with gusts as high as 55 mph around 4 a.m. Tuesday.

The Lower and Middle Keys on Monday remained under a tropical storm warning.

“This is mostly going to be squalls,” said meteorologist Jon Rizzo, of the National Weather Service in Key West, during Monday’s 9:30 a.m. countywide conference call of Keys leaders.

“You’re not going to have hours and hours of sustained winds,” he said.

Tropical storm-force winds are likely to arrive in Key West in the form of frequent, fast-moving squalls between 10 p.m. and midnight and continue through about 12 p.m. Tuesday.

Monroe County officials recommended that those in RVs, mobile homes, travel trailers and boats either leave the Keys by sunset Monday or find safer housing throughout the duration of the storm.

Residents should “have homes, boats and yards secure and be ready to shelter in place by sunset,” said Shannon Weiner, director of the emergency management office on Monday morning.

The Tampa Bay and Bradenton area could see 6 inches of rain this week as the storm nears, while the Keys are more likely to see 2 to 4 and Miami could see 1 or 2.

Florida could also see 1 to 2 feet of storm surge from the Keys north to Indian Pass, with Tampa Bay and the Cedar Key area expecting the most at 3 to 5 feet.

Winds are likely to pick up in Bradenton starting Tuesday morning with a peak of 30 mph sustained winds and gusts of up to 39 mph that evening, according to the weather service.