Christopher Nicholas: Are Pa. partisans flipping sides on Fetterman?

Are the party positions on always-newsy senior U.S. Sen. John Fetterman flipping here in Pennsylvania?

Fetterman continues to dominate the state’s “political attention” economy, as he has for a long time.

Earlier this month in Boston, he and Republican Sen. Dave McCormick participated in a debate sponsored by the Edward M. Kennedy Institute for the United States Senate and the Orrin G. Hatch Foundation. (It took place at the Kennedy Institute’s full-scale replica of the Senate Chamber, where Fetterman was free to wear his signature cargo shorts.)

Most of the juicy sound bites coming out of the debate involved Fetterman, especially as he sharply criticized his party for mishandling illegal immigration and for the growing level of antisemitism in key parts of Democrats’ party infrastructure. (Though more Jews voted Republican last year, most Jews still vote Democratic.)

And, last week, Fetterman sharply criticized the protests in Los Angeles and his party’s response to them.

It seems clear, though, his current posturing is costing him politically. A new poll shows Fetterman hemorrhaging support within his party. As the Philadelphia Inquirer reported, “A poll conducted last week by a progressive PAC found 65% of likely Democratic primary voters in the state disapprove of how Sen. John Fetterman is doing his job.”

Note: 65% is a significant number, one that would guarantee Fetterman a contested Democratic primary in 2028, when he is next up for reelection. It’s a number that would make it nearly impossible to win a contested primary. And it’s a number so massive that many in his party would urge him not to run again, so as avoid embarrassment.

After all, just 26% of Democrats surveyed said “they would definitely vote for Fetterman again.”

Now, of course, it’s not 2028. And this poll, conducted entirely via text among 4,000 (not a typo) Pennsylvania Democratic primary voters, could be flawed.

But have our party positions flipped on Fetterman?

Back in 2022, many Republicans fiercely criticized Fetterman as completely unprepared to take on the arduous job of being a U.S. senator in a large, diverse state like Pennsylvania. He had never had a real job before and phoned in a lot of his duties as lieutenant governor.

Then came his serious stroke, and the revelations he had ignored his doctor’s medical advice and hadn’t even seen a doctor in five years. Worse, it turns out he had lied to his boss, Gov. Tom Wolf, telling him his health was fine. At the time Wolf was an older cancer survivor, and after all — what’s the job of a lieutenant governor or vice president anyway? It’s being a heartbeat away from the top job.

Democrats reveled in Fetterman’s feisty appearance and demeanor, and his innate ability to stick it to the man while still sounding like a PBS fund-drive host. Plus, Democrats insisted, GOP Senate nominee Mehmet Oz was a dud and barely even lived here.

Have we come full circle now with Fetterman? That new poll suggests Democrats certainly have. Surveys in the 2022 race, which he won by more than 263,000 votes, consistently showed Fetterman getting 90%+ with Democrats. And now just 26% say they would vote for him in ’28. That’s quite a tumble, from 90%+ to 26%.

How about Republicans? When the first stories about Fetterman’s recent follies came out, spurred by leaks from his own current and former staffers, many Republicans rallied to his defense by declaring he was being smeared by those staffers because of his strong support of Israel.

In a recent piece for RealClearPennsylvania, I explained why I disagreed.

Then it came out that Fetterman skipped many meetings in D.C., missed more votes than all but one fellow senator — and hadn’t been out and about in months here at home. Just recently, he lost another chief of staff — his third since his term began.

I don’t think a poll of Pennsylvania Republicans would show 65% of us supporting Fetterman today, but given his problems with his party, plus the natural animus of Republicans toward a Democratic official, means his political standing is now very precarious.

And the next Pennsylvania Democratic politico I talk to who wants Fetterman reelected will be the first one. They are embarrassed by him for a whole host of reasons. And regardless, come ‘28, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) and Pennsylvania GOP will want to recapture this seat.

This means once and (potentially) future Democratic primary opponents (like former Democratic U.S. Rep. Conor Lamb) will continue to have access to three crucial campaign components: continued encouragement, media attention and financial support.

It’s a long time until 2028, but Fetterman will continue to dominate our political attention economy, as per usual. He will also continue to pay a steep price for it.

Christopher Nicholas is a veteran GOP political consultant, president of Eagle Consulting Group, and author of the PA Political Digest newsletter. He wrote this for RealClearPennsylvania.