Nippon Steel is putting more money on the table. But will it matter?

The nearly $15 billion elephant in the room is the Japanese company’s offer to acquire Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel.

It’s a deal that has been dragging on since December 2023. It slow-walked through the Committee for Foreign Investment in the United States process in 2024. Both then-President Joe Biden and now-President Donald Trump expressed their opposition, along with legislators and other politicians of both parties.

It looked as though it was dead in January when Biden quashed it but then punted a final decision to Trump amid inauguration transitions.

Along the way, Nippon has tried to sweeten the deal with more appeal to locals. There was an ad campaign featuring area mayors and steelworkers. Then there was a promise to invest more than $1 billion in Pittsburgh mills.

Now that promise is being expanded.

Reuters reported Monday the company will commit $14 billion to U.S. Steel investments, including not just existing facilities but also an entirely new mill to the tune of $4 billion.

That leaves two questions. Will it be enough to pull the deal out of the quicksand where it has been stuck for so long? And should it?

Bloomberg News reports the new investments are a result of negotiations with the Trump administration. However, the president has been a vocal critic of the deal since its beginning. His support is necessary to move forward, and it is not a sure thing.

That doesn’t mean Trump can’t be swayed. He famously proclaims his openness to bargaining. His history shows a willingness to change his mind even on issues where he has been vehement in his opposition. For example, Trump came out hard against TikTok but is now a supporter.

But if Trump doesn’t allow the acquisition, what happens next for U.S. Steel? The other potential buyer was Cleveland-Cliffs, which made a $7.3 billion offer in 2023. In January, it offered a package of $14.7 billion in cash and stock to compete with Nippon.

This month, however, Cleveland-Cliffs announced it would shut down three of its steel plants — including two in Pennsylvania — starting in June, blaming “insufficient demand and pricing.” On the one hand, that feels like a narrow miss for Pittsburgh area steelworkers. On the other, it seems to point to Nippon as the last lifeboat.

No matter what, Nippon has made its move. Now it’s up to Trump to make his.

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