F.D. Flam: Quantum computing could be the future of drug development

One of the first and most promising uses scientists envision for the rapidly evolving technology of quantum computing is a new approach to drug development. A quantum computer could, in theory, eliminate much of the trial and error involved in the process to help researchers more quickly zero in on ways to treat aggressive cancers, prevent dementia, kill deadly viruses or even slow aging by sifting through the trillions of molecules that might potentially be synthesized to create pharmaceuticals.

As proof of the technology’s potential, a group of researchers published a paper in Nature Biotechnology this year showing how they could use a small-scale quantum computer designed by IBM and AI to identify a potential cancer drug.

While several dozen quantum computers are working in labs worldwide, they’re not yet advanced enough or big enough to beat existing supercomputers except for certain special test problems. Still, there have been some surprising leaps in progress.

“We’re not making the claim that it’s faster, cheaper, better or anything … we’re showing it’s possible,” said Alex Zhavoronkov, a co-author of the paper and founder of Insilico Medicine. He compares these early uses with the first airplane flights — essential for demonstrating a new mode of transportation once deemed impossible.

Until recently, quantum computers were severely limited by their tendency to make errors. They use units of information storage called qubits, and stringing them together only compounds the error rate. Last year, the startup Quantinuum and later Google announced they’d found a way to resolve the problem so that adding more qubits decreased the error rate by building in a kind of redundancy.

While ordinary computers store information in bits, which can take the values zero or 1, a qubit can take on both values simultaneously, enabling quantum computers to process data in fundamentally different and often more powerful ways.

Quantum computing harnesses the famously strange behavior of quantum physics, where atoms, light and subatomic particles exist in states of uncertainty until observed — even their position can resemble a smeared-out wave rather than a single point in space.

Qubits can be created in various ways — from electrons moving through supercooled materials to atoms suspended in place by lasers. Most current systems connect only a handful of qubits, but Google set a milestone in December by implementing error correction in a system of 105. If this approach can be scaled to thousands of them, scientists believe it could revolutionize how we tackle real-world complexity — enabling breakthroughs in medicine, energy storage, high-efficiency solar panels, next-generation space suits and innovations we haven’t yet imagined.

Scientists are reluctant to predict precisely when quantum computers will be capable of speeding the discovery of drugs, chemicals and new materials, but many envision it happening within a decade. Last month, DARPA launched its “Quantum Benchmarking Initiative,” aiming to chart a path toward an industrially viable quantum computer by 2033.

Uncertainty is part of the nature of science — we can’t always predict where a pursuit will lead or how long it will take to produce practical results. One thing we can predict is that giving up guarantees we’ll fall behind.