The potential growth of covid-19 should be appreciated so as to maximize the hopefully short-term public response that is badly needed.
If it takes its natural course, the virus tends to infect others at a compounding rate of 30% or so. That will lead to a peak infection supposedly around the end of April. At that time, one-third of the U.S. population will be infected. That scenario would maximize death rates and suffering.
If some sort of therapy becomes available, we should treat it as a blessing. Depending on that by not isolating and greatly increasing care would be reckless.
If there is no serious mitigation of the increases, the following numbers represent the exponential growth that could occur, based on 30% growth per day:
Day 1: 1,047 people infected. On this day, about 1,000 people infect 300 new people
Day 5: 3,000 people infected.
Day 10: 11,100 people infected. On this day, about 11,000 people infect a little over 3,000 new people.
Day 15: 41,500 people infected.
Day 20: 154,000 people infected. On this day, about 150,000 people infect about 46,000 new people
Day 25: 571,500 people infected.
Day 30: 2.1 million people infected. On this day, about 2 million people infect about 600,000 new people.
Day 35: 7.9 million people infected.
Day 40: 29 million people infected. On this day, about 29 million people infect about 9 million new people.
Day 45: 110 million people infected. On this day, about one-third of the nation has become infected, grossly overwhelming the medical system.
Of course, significant social distancing, temporary personal isolation and effective medical therapies which are hopefully coming may significantly and quickly alter these numbers in a beneficial way.
James E. Ference, D.M.D.
Johnstown