Letter-writer Robert Mitchell (“What the real science world says about climate models,” July 1, TribLIVE) states that climate models have predicted for decades that the global temperature would now be about 1 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels, in good agreement with current measurements. Mitchell’s information is derived from a publication titled “Evaluating the Performance of Past Climate Models Projections,” which shows if one knows all the key climate information from the past, one can calculate a temperature that agrees with observations.
Unfortunately, we do not know all the future critical climate information, and today’s models cannot calculate the global temperatures correctly.
The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models (CMIP6), which the Western world uses to make major decisions, show that the difference between the modeled results and observations from 1979-2019 do not agree with each other. Furthermore, as Dr. John Christy (Irish Climate Science Forum, Jan. 21, 2021) has demonstrated, the “consensus” of the climate models fails the test for matching the real-world observations by a significant margin.
The IPCC climatologists’ massive modeling efforts have so far been futile. The problem of climate modeling is that none of the full earth system models (ESM) is validated against any observational studies of earth’s climate over protracted periods. Yet the IPCC is making decisions about future global warming with incorrect unverified models. This is leading us to make huge investments with no confidence that any positive results will occur.
Vincent J. Esposito
Murrysville