Paul Kengor: Nominating likable presidential candidates

On the eve of Tuesday’s election, RealClearPolitics posted a striking number. Its composite average of presidential polls showed a literal tie between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Each candidate was at 48.5%. You couldn’t get more even.

Still, as my editors here will attest, I predicted that Trump would thus win the popular vote on Tuesday. It was no stroke of genius. The reality is that Trump tends to outpace his poll projections by about 2%-3%. As I write currently, he’s pushing 51% of the popular vote. I must admit, however, that I never imagined Trump ever getting over 50%. I’ve long said that his ceiling is 48%. Why? Because Trump has long been disliked by over 50% of the electorate.

But then again, the same dislike was true for Trump’s opponent in 2016, Hillary Clinton, and for his opponent in 2024, Kamala Harris.

Democrats, I tried to warn you about that.

Throughout the race, the more striking number for both Trump and Harris were their dreadful favorability ratings. For each nominee, more Americans had an unfavorable view than favorable. In politics, that’s no recipe for success.

To be sure, Trump has supporters who are head over heels for him. They love the guy, especially here in Pennsylvania. He is their hero. He could always count on a base that adores him.

For Harris, that wasn’t the case. She never attracted the affection that Trump garnered. She did terribly in the 2020 race. She was the least liked Democrat in her party’s primary. When Joe Biden bewilderingly chose her as his running mate, everyone was stunned (as they were with Harris’ choice of Gov. Tim Walz over Gov. Josh Shapiro). He picked the least desirable Democrat.

Of course, Democrats rallied to Harris once she became the nominee. They would have rallied to anyone to defeat Trump. Comedian Bill Maher said he would vote for a severed head in a blue jar over Donald Trump. And that wasn’t to say that Maher liked Kamala Harris.

Even the pope weighed in. From Rome, Pope Francis said that the American election involved a choice of the lesser of two evils. Note the plural “evils.”

It had been clear for about a year that Republicans were going to nominate Trump. The choice of Harris, however, came late, after Biden’s alarming debate performance revealed him cognitively incapable of continuing as president. Biden withdrew on July 21, a week after Trump was shot in Butler. Had Democrats been smart, they would have upheld their claims about “democracy” and had a genuinely democratic convention to choose a likable presidential nominee. Ex-Democrat Robert F. Kennedy Jr. called it a “sham convention.” It was also stupid. Democrats without even a debate crowned as their nominee an unlikable figure.

Democrats in 2024 should have learned from 2016 and nominated a candidate who was not strongly disliked by the majority of the country. Recall that Sen. Ben Sasse brilliantly referred to 2016 as the Great Dumpster Fire Election. In 2020, Democrats wised up and went with the more likable Biden, and won handily.

It’s especially notable that at this moment of my writing, Harris looks to receive about the same number of votes (66 million) that Hillary Clinton got in 2016 — and some 15 million less than Biden. Yes, wow. Think about that.

In politics, likability matters.