Paul Kengor: RFK Jr.’s intriguing presidential bid

“I’m considering voting for RFK Jr.,” writes Henry, a reader of my columns. “He’s a very interesting alternative to both parties.”

What’s intriguing about Henry is that the presidential candidacy of Democrat Robert F. Kennedy Jr. appeals to him not as a Joe Biden voter but as a Donald Trump voter. Like millions who voted for Trump, or for Biden, Henry has never been happy about his choice. He prefers someone else.

Ironically, Henry was responding to an article I did on RFK Jr. for The American Spectator, titled “Doomsday for Democrats: How RFK Jr. Could Elect Trump.” My piece made precisely that point — namely, that RFK Jr.’s candidacy could elect Trump by pulling votes from Biden, especially if RFK Jr. ultimately goes third party. In response to that article, I got a bunch of media requests and lots of reactions. What I didn’t expect were reactions like Henry’s. Yes, an RFK Jr. third-party run would take votes from Biden, but it could also take them from Trump (if Trump becomes the Republican nominee). The son of Bobby Kennedy is apparently an option for people in both parties.

RFK Jr.’s appeal to such voters is his staunch independence. Unlike seemingly every Kennedy kid, he’s not a politician, though he has spent much of his life in public service. For decades, he has been a public-health advocate. Most recently, he was a leader against vax mandates, especially for children and young people not at high risk of death from covid. For this sin, a nasty little box pops up when you Google his name: “Robert Francis Kennedy Jr. is an American environmental lawyer and author known for promoting anti-vaccine propaganda and health-related conspiracy theories.”

That kind of smear is typical of the web. And people everywhere are sick of it. Some anonymous Millennial working for Google or Twitter or Facebook slimes you as a “conspiracy theorist” peddling “misinformation,” and you don’t even know who to protest to. You can’t even fight back. You’re smeared, permanently.

Well, RFK Jr. is fighting back. His response to being labeled a “propagandist and conspiracy theorist” is to walk into the public square and speak even louder. He declared his candidacy for the presidency.

This isn’t to say that I personally would vote for RFK Jr., but clearly many would. He’s polling at roughly 20% among Democrats. If he went third party, he could pull more support still from independents and even some Republicans. Would that serve to elect him president? No. But here’s what it could do:

It could toss the 2024 race into chaos. And yes, it could elect Donald Trump, who I believe cannot get 50% of the overall popular vote. Trump’s ceiling is about 46%. Trump can’t win the presidency in a two-man race, but he could win a three-man race.

In 1992, Democrat Bill Clinton won with only 43% of the vote because third-party candidate Ross Perot played spoiler (with 19%) to Republican George H. W. Bush’s attempted reelection. In 1968, Republican Richard Nixon was elected with only 43% against Democrat Hubert Humphrey, with third-party independent George Wallace pulling votes. Likewise, in 1912, Democrat Woodrow Wilson secured the presidency with only 42%.

Could RFK Jr.’s entry have this same effect? We shall see.