Paul Kengor: Why Trump will (likely) win Pa.

Let me begin with an honest admission of my predictive abilities: In 2016, I forecast a Hillary Clinton win in Pennsylvania and nationwide. That’s not a reassuring way of convincing Trib readers to take me seriously in 2020, but here it goes:

I think Donald Trump will win Pennsylvania (and thus the election) in 2020. Here’s my thinking, based on the anecdotal and statistical:

First, there are the signs: literal signs. They are everywhere. I drove across the entire state last weekend. The profusion of Trump signs is astonishing. I saw them in 2016 but ignored them as reliable indicators. And yet, in 2020, there are far more. I’ve driven down rural roads where every yard has a Trump sign.

It isn’t just the number of signs. The typical Biden sign says nothing more. It’s a little Biden-Harris placard grabbed from local party headquarters. The Trump signs are a different breed. They are often massive, homemade, sides of buildings, barns, entire yards, signs urging “TRUMP 2020: No More B.S.,”

These signs signal an obvious enthusiasm gap among the two candidates. There are Trump supporters who would set themselves on fire for the man. That passion for Biden is not there.

As for the statistical, the polling gap has really closed. As I write, the Real Clear Politics average for Pennsylvania is Biden by 3.8%, but that dates back to Oct. 15. As for the two most recent polls, Trafalgar has the two candidates tied, and Insider Advantage has Trump by 2%.

This narrowed gap reflects Trump’s surge after the second debate, and particularly Biden’s horrific answer on energy-oil- fracking at the close. That statement by Biden was devastating to his Pennsylvania prospects.

But most important, and being missed by national pundits, are the crucial numbers on Republican voter registration gains statewide. In this final stretch before voter registration ended, Republicans outgained Democrats in 62 of 67 counties. Democrats had higher registration in only Allegheny, Dauphin (barely), Delaware, Montgomery and Philadelphia. The Republican pickups in counties like Bucks, Erie, Lancaster, Washington, Westmoreland, York and others are sizable.

In 2016, Trump won Pennsylvania by 44,000 votes. Could he maintain that margin in 2020? Well, consider this: In November 2016, Democrats had a 900,000-person registration advantage in Pennsylvania. In November 2020, they have a 700,000-person advantage. They’ve lost 200,000. In May, the Democrats’ margin was 803,000. By the Oct. 19 registration deadline, it’s down to 700,853. That’s a surge by Republicans. Elections are about turnout, and that surge would suggest a strong Trump turnout.

Pennsylvania, especially Western Pennsylvania, has become increasingly Republican. Nearly a half-million Pennsylvania Democrats switched their registration to Republican since 2008. Consider Westmoreland County: Some 22,597 Westmoreland Democrats become Republicans since 2008. Trump crushed Clinton in Westmoreland, by 64%-32% (57,000 votes). What has happened in Westmoreland since? In 2019, Westmoreland became a Republican majority. The same is true for counties like Cambria County.

To be sure, a big difference in 2020 is that Clinton was loathed and Joe Biden is not. Still, there’s little enthusiasm for Biden; it’s in Trump’s corner.

What this suggests is a likely Trump victory in Pennsylvania. And if Trump wins Pennsylvania, he’ll win the Electoral College.