Sheldon H. Jacobson: NBA quality players on a college team are not sufficient to make noise in the NCAA Tournament

A new college basketball season is beginning. For every team, their 30-plus schedule of games is certain to produce some surprises. Yet every fan hopes their team will have what it takes to make some noise in March. Rankings are certainly informative. But is there a more reliable way to forecast March success?

One way is to look at where college players are drafted in the NBA and compare that to how their teams performed during the season.

Looking back at the 2025 NBA draft, 59 of the very best basketball prospects from across the world were selected, with each given the opportunity to spend some time in “The League” and earn a living playing a game they have dedicated their life to. Few people are afforded such an opportunity.

The likelihood of any college player making the NBA is low. In 2023-24, 19,275 men played college basketball. Amongst this group, 5,607 played in Division I, considered the most competitive group and from where nearly every NBA player gets drafted out of college (though there are some exceptions).

In the 2025 NBA draft, six of the players drafted in the first round were from outside the U.S. Of the remaining 24 players, 18 played in the 2025 NCAA basketball tournament, including one from National Champion Florida and three from Final Four Duke.

In the second round, seven of the players drafted in the first round were from outside the country. Of the remaining 22 players drafted, 15 played in the 2025 NCAA basketball tournament, including two from National Champion Florida and three from Final Four Duke and Auburn.

What is perhaps most revealing is that some of the top college teams had none of their players drafted. For example, national runner-up Houston as well as Alabama and Texas Tech, two of the Elite Eight teams, all had no one drafted.

Perhaps what is most remarkable is that four of the 13 players that did not play in the 2025 NCAA Tournament were drafted in the top 11.

So what are the takeaways from these observations for college teams that aspire to reach the 2026 NCAA tournament and enjoy a deep run?

First, having NBA-quality talent on a college team’s roster does matter. High-quality coaching can bring out the best in players, but without talent, there is a ceiling of how far a team can progress.

Second, having NBA-quality talent on a roster is not sufficient to be successful as a team. Rutgers had two of their players drafted in the top 5, yet they did not even make the 2025 NCAA tournament. Of course, numerous factors can derail a season, including untimely injuries and illnesses. However, basketball is a team sport, which means that players must play as a team to win games.

Third, underclassman were the most drafted group in the first round, with 18 freshmen picked. In fact, the last freshman was taken 29th in the first round. In contrast, amongst the 22 seniors taken, the first was taken 11th in the first round. However, 19 of the 29 second round picks were seniors. This suggests that NBA teams value pure talent over experience, and will draft such talent as soon as possible (as freshmen), while more seasoned players with skills are valued later in the draft once the pool of pure talent is exhausted.

Four, international players are drawing attention from NBA teams, with 13 of the draft picks coming from overseas. The number of international players on NBA rosters continues to grow.

This is why basketball competition at international events like the Summer Olympics has given international NBA players a stage for elevating their country’s competitiveness against Team USA.

The lesson learned from the NBA draft is that success for college teams benefit from talent on the roster and the talent of the coach to get the most out of his players. But team sports cannot be carried by a single player, no matter how talented that player may be.

At the professional level, Lebron James has enjoyed a remarkable NBA career, winning four NBA crowns and reaching the NBA finals six other times. Michael Jordan won six NBA crowns during his 15 years career, a remarkable record. Yet both still needed supporting groups to enable their success.

NBA talent on a college team roster is never bad. Yet assembling this talent into a team is what makes championships. That is why finding college coaches that can both recruit talent and draw X’s and O’s is so difficult. This may explain why so many schools opt to change coaches, searching for the magic formula that will take them to the pinnacle of success in March, something that few ever attain.

Sheldon H. Jacobson is a computer science professor at the University of Illinois.