Sheldon Jacobson: NHL, other professional leagues imploding with covid-19

Dozens of NHL players are under covid-19 protocols, resulting in teams playing shorthanded, and in some cases, temporarily shutting down. There have been several postponed games over the past two weeks, including cross border games, with teams that were still in action playing to empty arena. The NHL has now officially paused the season through Christmas, with further extensions possible.

The NHL is not alone. The NFL is experiencing similar covid-19 disruptions.

With almost every NHL player fully vaccinated, how can this be happening?

First, it has become abundantly clear that the protections offered by the vaccines wane with time. This means that a player vaccinated back in April has significantly less protection than those vaccinated in August. That is why booster shots are necessary, and recommended, but not mandated, by the NHL and its Players Association. In fact, a person should only be classified as fully vaccinated if they have received their booster shot.

Second, the vaccines are most effective in protecting people from severe outcomes, not from infections. This became most apparent once widespread vaccination began and breakthrough infections appeared. The good news is that the preponderance of NHL players are under 40 years old, so their personal risks are minimal.

Third, the omicron variant appears to be more contagious than delta, the dominant variant since late summer. Though omicron’s full impact has yet to be felt, it is likely to become the prevailing worldwide variant circulating in the very near future. The good news is that it appears to produces less severe disease, so at the individual level there is lower personal risk. However, with more people infected, population risk could meet or exceed the risk associated with the delta variant.

The emergence of omicron is an indicator that the virus is becoming endemic, which means that it will continue to be present, but more manageable. This also is why full vaccination is imperative for all, and that new therapeutics are critical to treat those who are not so fortunate and end up with severe disease.

What is the best plan forward for the NHL?

Completely shutting down the NHL season is not the solution. Much like how travel bans from southern African countries were instituted once omicron was first detected there, trying to contain the spread of the disease through isolation is futile.

Temporarily playing to empty arenas is feasible, but unsustainable, once play resumes. Though arenas have cavernous ceilings or domes, air flow quality issues can be problematic. Therefore, requiring full vaccination (including a booster) and enforcing face covering requirements for spectators is appropriate. Providing high quality face masks, like KN95s, to all spectators would be expensive, but prudent. To go one step further, administering at-home tests on site for those who wish to attend a game is disruptive and draconian, but may be on the table for discussion in some cities and venues.

The worst is not yet behind us, with more players and coaches likely to be infected in the coming weeks, with the new daily testing protocol detecting all such infections. However, with the protective armor of full vaccination, players, coaches and staff are positioned to weather the incoming tsunami of infections with few deleterious outcomes.

The good news is that this wave of infections will eventually subside, likely well before the Stanley Cup playoffs begin in the spring. This gives every team the extra incentive to get through this phase of the pandemic with minimal damage to their players and their record, so they can compete when the real season begins in May or June.

Sheldon Jacobson is a professor of computer science at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign