Sheldon Jacobson: NHL teams exercising power of choice on vaccinations

The National Hockey League will open its season Oct. 12. As of Oct. 1, just 12 NHL players were reported to not be fully vaccinated, though several are reported to be in line to have their second dose by opening night. This means that no less than 20 teams are fully vaccinated.

The Pittsburgh Penguins and the Detroit Red Wings each have just one player not fully vaccinated. There are allegations that San Jose Shark forward Evander Kane used a fake covid-19 vaccination card when presenting proof of his vaccination. Pittsburgh recently had two vaccinated players test positive, demonstrating the challenges with the delta variant.

How are teams addressing the vaccination issue with the few remaining holdout players?

Consider the Columbus Blue Jackets. They would like all their players to take the covid-19 vaccine, without issuing a mandate. They, like much of the private sector, are creating incentives and penalties to encourage vaccination. For example, United Airlines offered financial incentives to its employees and are set to place several hundred of them who remain unvaccinated on unpaid leave. Delta Airlines is charging a $200 monthly health insurance surcharge for employees unwilling to take the vaccines.

The NHL stopped short of mandating vaccination, but any player who cannot participate in team activities may lose pay for those missed days. Given that there are seven NHL teams in Canada, 14-day quarantines effectively prevent players from crossing the border for games, which means that they can lose pay on any such road trips. Moreover, it could severely hamper team performance if the player was a key contributor, like New Jersey Devils goaltender Mackenzie Blackwood or Detroit Red Wing forward Tyler Bertuzzi, who both remain unvaccinated.

The Blue Jackets are fully vaccinated, except for one player, Zac Rinaldo. Their response is to not permit him to play for their team nor their AHL affiliate, the Cleveland Monsters, though he will receive his AHL salary. They have also given him permission to pursue other opportunities as he sees fit.

They are exercising their power of choice to facilitate the safest possible environment for their players, staff and fans.

Organizations must look at the gestalt when making such decisions. A worst-case scenario is that an unvaccinated player allows a rogue infection to seep into the dressing room or the arena, infecting other players, staff or fans. Though all other players may be vaccinated, breakthrough infections can occur, or some players may need to be quarantined for exposure, creating lineup shuffling in games played and disruptions to travel arrangements for road games.

Even if Rinaldo subjects himself to daily testing, tests only provide a snapshot of infection status, which can change shortly after the test is taken. Testing is useful, but not a substitute for protection.

The message that NHL teams like the Columbus Blue Jacket are sending to its players, staff and fans is that it wants to keep the virus out of the organization, and believes that vaccination is the most reliable way to achieve that.

What made this decision easy is that Rinaldo is a depth player, not a top nine forward with a significant salary cap hit. What if a more significant contributor was unwilling to be vaccinated, like Tyler Bertuzzi for Detroit, who carries a $4.75 million salary cap hit this year? So far, Detroit has been cautious with him during the preseason. This is likely to continue, given cross-border covid-19 restrictions.

The NHL appears to have achieved near complete vaccination without the burden of imposing a mandate. Creating appropriate incentives and penalties proved to be sufficient.

As golfer Jon Rahm learned at the Memorial Tournament in Columbus back in June, there are consequences to not being vaccinated, some of which are financial.

There are also risks to not being vaccinated, including myocarditis, which Edmonton Oiler forward Josh Archibald learned with his recent diagnosis of a heart condition after having been infected over the summer. Clearly, the benefits of vaccination far outweigh their risks.

As in a free society, Rinaldo exercised his power of choice to not be vaccinated. The Blue Jackets, the Red Wings and other NHL teams are exercising their power of choice as well to keep unvaccinated players on the sidelines.

Sheldon Jacobson is a founder professor of computer science at the Carle Illinois College of Medicine at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. He applies his expertise in data-driven risk-based assessment to evaluate and inform public policy and public health.