Sheldon Jacobson: Will covid-19 create unexpected surprises at the US Open?

Torrey Pines is hosting the 2021 U.S. Open Golf tournament, the third of four professional golf majors played this year. With 156 golfers from across the globe gathering in San Diego, there is much anticipation for the event to be held without any hitches.

Recall the pain and frustration displayed by Jon Rahm at the Memorial Tournament just over a week ago, the third-round leader by six strokes, whose positive covid-19 test results forced him to withdraw, effectively costing him over $1.6 million and the world No. 1 ranking. PGA covid-19 protocols for those who have not been vaccinated but have been exposed required him to be tested daily to confirm that he remained infection-free. Once Rahm tested positive, he could not finish the tournament. This is every golfer’s nightmare, and it played out for Rahm in real time on national television.

The good news is that covid-19 cases in the United States have dropped precipitously over the past month, with more than half of all adults fully vaccinated. More states are relaxing face covering and social distancing requirements in public for those vaccinated, based on CDC guidelines.

The bad news is that this has not been the case around the globe.

Given that golfers in the tournament represent 26 countries, with many not PGA tour regulars, these golfers, with their families and support teams, might have arrived in Southern California after long international flights, possibly exposing themselves to the virus. In addition, covid-19 vaccines, which are widely available to anyone in the United States, are more difficult to obtain in many countries. For example, rates for doses administered in Japan (four golfers) and South Africa (nine golfers) are both below 20 for every 100 people. With several of these golfers active on the U.S. and European professional golf tours, many have had access to vaccines, if they wished to be vaccinated.

Realistically, the likelihood of a rogue infection among all those traveling to San Diego from afar is exceedingly low, but it is not zero.

Further adding to the story line are the fans who will attend the tournament. The USGA has provided strict protocols concerning mandatory vaccination at least 14 days before the event (effectively requiring vaccine passports), though such a requirement does not appear to have been placed on the golfers. In addition, face coverings and social distancing will be required for fans, staff and volunteers, independent of their vaccination status. Given the mild but not excessively hot weather forecasted for the tournament, wearing face coverings should not be overly burdensome.

The challenge will be enforcing all such guidelines amid frenzied moments when a fan favorite like Phil Michelson or Jordan Spieth holes out for birdie to gain a share of the lead. Safety protocols sound good in theory, but often fall woefully inadequate in practice.

The ideal storyline for the tournament is that covid-19 remains a non-­issue. This means that no golfer requires contact tracing and daily testing, the majority of golfers and their support teams arrive to Southern California vaccinated, and no golfer tests positive requiring their withdrawal.

No covid-19 drama is the best the case scenario that the USGA can hope for.

Sheldon Jacobson is a Founder Professor of Computer Science at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.