Analysis: 10 victories represent reasonable goal for Pitt football in 2020

The magic number is 10, a victory total that has been unattainable at Pitt for the past decade, and a reality only once since 1981.

But it’s a reasonable goal for Pat Narduzzi’s 2020 team, his sixth at Pitt.

Narduzzi welcomes back 12 players on defense and seven on offense who have played prominent roles in previous seasons, including a three-year starter at quarterback (Kenny Pickett) and All-ACC first-team center Jimmy Morrissey. Plus, the often-overlooked but important triumvirate of long snapper Cal Adomitis, holder and punter Kirk Christodoulou and kicker Alex Kessman returns. Those guys performing at peak efficiency can be invaluable in close games.

Of course, in the Panthers’ weight room — where workouts among medically cleared players began Monday under the supervision of the strength and training staff — the players would tell you the goal at this point is to get 3% better than the day before. (It’s a daily improvement rate that Pitt players have mentioned like a badge of honor since 2015, Narduzzi’s first season.)

The idea is for players to have a narrow focus in June while preparing their bodies for broader goals in the fall.

Players shouldn’t look too far ahead, but preseason media projections know no such boundaries. In that light, what would a 10-victory season mean for Narduzzi’s program?

Initially, it would represent significant progress from the six- and seven-victory seasons of the first half of the previous decade and would make the Pitt brand prominent beyond the ACC. That could pay dividends on signing days this year and in the future.

At the moment, the 2021 recruiting class is shaping up as Pitt’s best in at least 14 years. Narduzzi has verbal, non-binding commitments from 16 prospects and likely will add eight or nine more to compensate for the loss of a huge senior class.

The class of 2021 is currently ranked 23rd in the nation by Rivals.com and could surpass 2006, Pitt’s best since Rivals began its rankings in 2002. In ’06, Pitt’s class was 21st and included All-American tight end Dorin Dickerson, who played on the most recent Panthers team to win 10 games (’09).

Nothing is guaranteed in college football, however.

Former coach Dave Wannstedt recruited future NFL players Aaron Donald, T.J. Clemmings and K’Waun Williams in 2010, had Pitt in position to win the Big East late in the season, but was fired when he failed to do so.

That thrust Pitt into an abyss that Narduzzi is escaping after three eight-victory seasons in five years.

If he’s successful in 2020 (and some fans will only define success as a double-digit victory total), Narduzzi will have three things many college coaches would do most anything to attain:

• A winning team.

• A strong recruiting base, especially in Florida and Virginia where assistants Charlie Partridge and Chris Beatty have built strong relationships in the high schools.

• A contract that runs through 2024.

But the immediate question still begs for an answer:

Is Pitt good enough to win the ACC Coastal this season?

Maligned over the years, the Coastal looks better than in previous seasons, which might reduce Pitt’s margin for error. Quarterbacks Sam Howell (North Carolina), D’Eriq King (Miami) and Hendon Hooker (Virginia Tech) line up as three of the best under center in the ACC.

• Howell threw for 3,641 yards and 38 touchdowns as a freshman.

• King recorded 3,656 total yards and accounted for 50 touchdowns at Houston in 2018.

• Hooker’s achievements last season included an efficient 13/2 touchdown/interception ratio, a 165.8 passer rating and a 28-0 victory against Pitt.

Pickett fits among those players in terms of experience and leadership, but he’ll need better support from his linemen, backs and pass catchers.

Bottom line: Pitt must prove itself.

Athlon’s magazine named 10 Pitt players on its preseason All-ACC team (more than any school other than Clemson and Virginia Tech). Plus, defensive tackle Jaylen Twyman and strong safety Paris Ford were honored as preseason All-Americans.

But Pitt was picked 46th nationally by college football writer Bob Asmussen of the Champaign (Ill.) News-Gazette in a ranking of all 130 FBS schools.

That won’t be good enough in the eyes of those within and without the Pitt program.

Get the latest news about Pitt football and all things Panthers athletics.