Analysis: Opening Day roster taking shape as Pirates enter final week of spring training

It’s not often Derek Shelton tips his hand on lineups, so it’s big news when the Pittsburgh Pirates manager does reveal plans.

Some go without saying. Because of his glove, Ke’Bryan Hayes is the starting third baseman. Because of his bat, Bryan Reynolds is starting in the outfield — either in center or left. Despite his height, Oneil Cruz is the starting shortstop. And even though Shelton refuses to call him the closer, All-Star David Bednar is the go-to guy in save situations.

Some go on the record. Before the start of spring training, Shelton said outfielder Andrew McCutchen would be in the Opening Day lineup. In the first week at Pirate City, Shelton noted that Austin Hedges would start at catcher. And, just last week, Shelton named right-handed pitcher Mitch Keller the Opening Day starter.

On Monday, Shelton gave the closest thing to an endorsement for Jack Suwinski when the manager told reporters the 24-year-old outfielder is “in a good spot.” Shelton didn’t elaborate whether that means Suwinski will be a starter or simply on the 26-man roster, so take it for what you will, but Suwinski started 90 games last season and played in 106.

After hitting 19 home runs as a rookie, Suwinski is slashing .226/.333/.452 with five extra-base hits and five RBIs this spring. He has shared time in center field with Reynolds but has struggled while dealing with the sun and wind at LECOM Park in Bradenton.

It hasn’t helped that Suwinski has been outshined in Grapefruit League play over the past week by Canaan Smith-Njigba and Travis Swaggerty, a pair of rookie outfielders with a combined eight games of major-league experience who are fighting for a spot on the Opening Day roster.

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“There’s also a lot going on (with) what you did previously,” Shelton said, per Justice delos Santos of MLB.com. “I think we all know spring training stats can be inflated very quickly, especially playing the back half of games when it’s guys that are going to be in the minor leagues. So we have to be aware of what has been done and what he’s done. The fact that Jack came to the big leagues last year, hit 19 homers (and) got better defensively (matters).”

If we take Shelton at his word — with some reading between the lines — the Opening Day starting lineup is beginning to take shape: Hedges and Keller will form the battery with Cruz at shortstop, Hayes at third base, a starting outfield of Reynolds, McCutchen and Suwinski and either Carlos Santana or Ji-Man Choi at first base, with the other the likely designated hitter.

That essentially leaves one starting job up for grabs going into the final week of spring training. There has been little separation in the battle at second base involving Ji Hwan Bae, Rodolfo Castro and Tucupita Marcano. The addition of Mark Mathias through a trade and Chris Owings as a nonroster invitee only complicates matters.

That all of the candidates have position versatility could factor into the decision. Bae can play the middle infield and center field. Castro can play second, shortstop or third base, where he’s the best backup option behind Hayes. Marcano can play second base or left field. Mathias can play anywhere but shortstop, Owings anywhere but catcher.

Shelton didn’t resolve the issue at all, suggesting the possibility he won’t name a starting second baseman but rather base it on matchups.

“I think it definitely could be a rotation, and I think you could see us have a rotation at a couple spots because we’re built a little bit differently than we have been in the past, in terms of what we’ve added and how we function left to right now,” Shelton said. “It doesn’t necessarily have to be one person. It could be, but it doesn’t necessarily have to be one person.”

That’s Shelton’s way of saying the Pirates have better balance and more depth in their lineup this season than last year, when they were heavy on left-handed hitters and were forced to turn to untested rookies when injuries took a toll in May.

The competition for the remaining roster spots involves how Shelton wants to use his utility players, for which the Pirates have plenty of choices. And it might come down to how they weigh guaranteed contracts versus minor league options and what 40-man roster moves they are willing to make.

To make room for Mathias, the Pirates placed right-handed pitcher Max Kranick on the 60-day injured list as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Whoever wins the backup catcher job — Kevin Plawecki is the favorite — will need to be added to the 40-man roster, and the Pirates could create two more spots by moving injured relievers Jarlin Garcia and Robert Stephenson to the IL to start the season.

Outfielder Miguel Andujar is a complicated case. The Pirates signed Andujar to a $1.525 million deal last fall but designated him for assignment when they signed McCutchen. They have to decide whether to create a roster spot for Andujar or possibly swallow the salary. That could factor into whether the Pirates keep him over Smith-Njigba or Swaggerty, who both have options remaining.

Then there is Connor Joe, who was acquired from Colorado last fall and can play the corner outfield positions and first base. Joe is batting .258 this spring but has a .346 on-base percentage in 182 career major-league games. The Pirates acquired Mathias and added him to the 40-man roster, but he doesn’t play shortstop. The 31-year-old Owings does, but he’d have to be added to the roster.

The starting rotation looks set, with Keller, Roansy Contreras and JT Brubaker joined by free-agent signings Rich Hill ($8 million) and Vince Velasquez ($3.15 million). The Pirates optioned righty flamethrower Luis Ortiz to Triple-A Indianapolis on Tuesday. Where does that leave Johan Oviedo? With two days off in the first week, the Pirates could opt to start the season with an extra reliever.

Bednar leads a bullpen that should include returnees Wil Crowe, Chase De Jong, Colin Holderman and Duane Underwood Jr., leaving three spots to be filled. The Pirates wanted to add more swing-and-miss relievers, so they traded Kevin Newman to the Cincinnati Reds for righty Dauri Moreta, who has nine strikeouts and one run allowed in 6 2/3 innings over seven appearances this spring.

With Garcia likely out for a few months, there is a need for a lefty reliever. That could mean a spot for Rule 5 Draft pick Jose Hernandez or nonroster invitee Angel Perdomo, who both have 10 strikeouts this spring. The Pirates optioned Yohan Ramirez to Indianapolis, which could leave Yerry De Los Santos battling one of the lefties for the last spot in the bullpen.

The Pirates have a week to finalize those decisions. When it comes to who makes the Opening Day roster, consider Shelton’s words as a warning: Be aware of what has been done and what he’s done.