MLB Draft Analysis: Pirates take best available with prep pitchers in 1st 2 picks, will address needs later

When the MLB Draft started with stunners for the first two selections, the Pittsburgh Pirates were prepared to pivot in a number of different directions with the No. 6 overall pick.

They believed the odds were against Seth Hernandez slipping to them, so they were “super excited” to take the 19-year-old prep pitcher after the Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Angels threw curveballs.

Ben Cherington had vowed to take the best player available, and the Pirates general manager threw his heater by picking the pitcher with an advanced pitch repertoire that features an elite changeup.

After rave reviews from their scouts, pitching group and research and development department, amateur scouting director Justin Horowitz said the Pirates were “pumped” to have the opportunity to select the 6-foot-4, 200-pound right-hander from Corona, Calif.

“This is a kid that we’ve had our eyes on for well over a year,” Horowitz said Sunday night in a video conference call. “Across the board, we had high, high levels of enthusiasm for what Seth can do now and what we think he can do in the future. He’s an incredible athlete, he can manipulate the baseball, he throws a ton of strikes, he’s projectable, he’s explosive, and he’s an awesome kid. I’ll be honest, he’s a great kid to be around. He’s a culture changer. He’s competitive. He’s focused. He has a professional demeanor about him. He just checks so many of our boxes.”

The Pirates found a facsimile of Hernandez in the second round, selecting another right-hander from southern California with a four-pitch repertoire that features a Bugs Bunny changeup in Angel Cervantes of Warren High School in Downey, Calif.

Stockpiling pitching has become a signature of Cherington’s drafts. That starts with 2023 No. 1 overall pick Paul Skenes, the 2024 National League rookie of the year and a two-time All-Star. Cherington also counts Jared Jones and Carmen Mlodzinski, as well as top-10 prospects Bubba Chandler, Hunter Barco, Thomas Harrington, Levi Sterling and Zander Mueth among his arms acquired through the amateur draft.

But Cherington also vowed to address a desperate need for hitting, and the Pirates did so by taking a pair of college sluggers in Fresno State third baseman Tristan “Murf” Gray in the Competitive Balance B round and Oklahoma catcher Easton Carmichael in the third round.

“We’re going to take the best player available. We thought we did with our first two selections,” Cherington said. “Felt pretty clearly about that, and we love the potential that Murf and Carmichael bring us with the third and fourth picks. … Obviously, we have to create more offense in Pittsburgh. We’re just going to have to attack that in every way possible. It doesn’t have to come through the top of the draft. We’re thrilled to get these two young pitchers in the system, and we’ll just continue to attack the offense, solving that offensive issue in different ways.”

Hernandez is a special talent ranked the No. 2 prospect by Baseball America and No. 3 by MLB Pipeline. He was regarded as the top right-handed pitching prospect in a draft where three lefties were taken in the top 11. The Nationals pulled a surprise by selecting 17-year-old prep shortstop Eli Willits No. 1 overall, but the Angels went way outside the box with the No. 2 pick. They took UC-Santa Barbara right-hander Tyler Bremner, who wasn’t expected to go in the top 15.

Horowitz trusted the job that southern California area supervisor Mark Sluys, who followed him from the Boston Red Sox, had done in scouting and getting to know Hernandez. Horowitz described Hernandez as “electric” on the summer circuit and “lights out” for prep powerhouse Corona, where he posted a 0.39 ERA with 105 strikeouts to earn Gatorade national player of the year honors.

“He did everything we could’ve asked of him: pounded the strike zone, attacked, showed four pitches, landed them all for strikes and competed and maintained composure, even with a lot of focus and stress that comes along with being one of the top pitching prospects in the country,” Horowitz said. “So, just again, checked all of our boxes, and rose to the occasion and proved why he deserved to be considered one of the best in this year’s draft.”

Horowitz earned more respect when he peppered the Pirates with questions in his interviews, first at the draft combine and then on a video conference call in the days leading up to the draft.

“He’s an intelligent kid, his baseball IQ is excellent,” Horowitz said, “and it just gave us confidence that we were drafting a super confident, competitive, focused, driven individual that was going to be a huge value add to the culture that we’re trying to build here with the Pirates.”

As a 6-3, 200-pound righty who is committed to UCLA, Cervantes checked a lot of the same boxes as Hernandez. Cervantes doesn’t turn 18 until Aug. 21, but throws the changeup, a four-seamer that touches the mid-90s and a pair of breaking pitches.

“They are projectable. They are athletic. Angel may not be as far along in his training age, is what we say,” Horowitz said. “In as far as his ability to manipulate the baseball, pound strikes, compete on the mound, four pitches, he does a lot of really, really good things that make him interesting. Finally, he’s an awesome kid, too. He is super nice and quiet a little bit off the field. But, on the field, this kid is an elite competitor, another one we are really, really excited about potentially bringing into the organization.”

While the questions about Hernandez and Cervantes will be about how long it will take them to develop, analysts already are debating whether Gray and Carmichael can remain at their college positions.

Both offer the type of power potential the Pirates lack. Gray batted .324/.398/.639 with 22 doubles, 18 homers and 70 RBIs with a low strikeout rate (10.9%) this past season. Carmichael hit 10 doubles, four triples and 17 homers and had 14 stolen bases.

Horowitz said northern California area scout Mike Sansoe did some digging and found that there is more power to tap into with Gray.

“He hits the ball really, really hard. Crushes balls,” Horowitz said. “It’s just about leveraging his impact a little bit deeper in games and optimizing his contact points, getting to better ball fly. That’s how we can really tap into some big power potential.”

Despite a strong arm, draft analysts questioned whether Gray is athletic enough to stay at third base or would need to move to first. It’s the opposite for Carmichael, whose athleticism but weak arm could prompt a move to a corner outfield spot.

“There is always that possibility,” Horowitz said. “He’s a great athlete. He’s strong. He’s versatile. He’s got really good lower-half strength, and he’s explosive. There is some upside there, but we are definitely focused on him with his catching ability. We think he can definitely do it. He provides power back there. We are going to give him every opportunity to prove that he can be a legitimate catching prospect in our organization.”

By taking the best players available with their top two picks, the Pirates didn’t address their most obvious need until their next two picks on the first day of the draft. Whether that means Cherington continued to stockpile pitching so he could trade from a strength of depth will be determined at the July 31 trade deadline. For now, Cherington is focused on adding more talent Monday, the second day of the draft.

“We made the selections tonight because we see them as Pirates,” Cherington said. “Not really getting ahead of that in any way. I think, again, we need to improve our offense at the major-league level. Whether that happens naturally through internal player development or through trades or free agency or over time through the draft and international, it’s going to have to happen through all those channels, candidly.

“It’s just clear, the draft’s a really hard exercise. Justin and his team do an exceptional job to help us be prepared to make good selections. Last thing we want to do is make that very hard exercise even harder by saying, ‘We’ve got to take this type of player, this type of player.’ We just want to get the best talent possible, in total, and we feel we’re off to a really good start.”