Analysis: Pirates would be better to pay Bryan Reynolds' asking price than include an opt-out

Asked if he could envision signing a player to a $100 million contract in the near future, Pirates chairman Bob Nutting told the Tribune-Review that it was “definitely inside the realm of possibility.”

Nutting knew that it would be met with skepticism by a fan base that views him as nothing but a bottom-line owner, but insisted that it wasn’t just lip service by adding that after investing the past few years in scouting and player development it was time to spend on payroll.

“I can see that happening. I think it’s going to be important,” Nutting said last month at LECOM Park in Bradenton, Fla. “We’re at a place now where we need to be putting the foot on the gas at the major league club, much as we were in 2012, ’13 and ’14.”

The Pirates were prepared to make 28-year-old outfielder Bryan Reynolds their first nine-figure player on Opening Day, reaching an “agreement on dollars” when negotiations hit a “major conceptual issue,” per a report by Jon Heyman of the New York Post.

What prevented an eight-year, $106.75 million deal — which would have been the richest in franchise history, per figures reported by Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic — was Reynolds requesting an opt-out clause after the fourth year of the contract that, if exercised, would have granted him free agency following the 2026 season.

That’s when the Pirates took their foot off the gas and slammed the brakes, bringing negotiations to an abrupt halt.

The two sides had met in the middle on money, with Reynolds coming down $27.25 million from his $134 million request and the Pirates moving up $26.75 million from their best offer. The average annual value of the contract remained the same, at $13.3 million, although reports have said Reynolds was willing to backload the deal.

Despite the disruption, both sides have shown a willingness to work through contract turmoil. They avoided arbitration with a two-year, $13.5 million deal last April, which Reynolds called a “win-win” and added that “things are definitely taking steps in the right direction.”

Nutting personally tried to repair the relationship by talking with Reynolds during spring training at Pirate City.

“What matters to me is that Bryan knows, and I hope he does after this week, how much we appreciate what he’s doing for the team, how much we respect him as a person and a player,” Nutting told the Trib. “He really is a good baseball player. He really is a dedicated, hard-working, wonderful part of the team. And we would love to find a way to make that work.”

That Reynolds wants a $100 million-plus deal makes sense. The market for outfielders who can hit for average and power has determined his worth, with George Springer signing a six-year, $150 million contract with Toronto in 2021 and Brandon Nimmo an eight-year, $162 million deal with the New York Mets in December.

That Reynolds has hit .292 and averaged 30 doubles, 22 home runs and 73 RBIs with 83 runs scored in his three full major league seasons — he batted .189 with seven homers and 19 RBIs in 55 games in the covid-shortened 2020 season — makes the 2021 All-Star one of baseball’s best bargains.

The difference is in leverage. Where Springer and Nimmo were in demand as free agents, Reynolds remains under club control for two more seasons of arbitration eligibility. He requested a trade in November but the Pirates are under no obligation to acquiesce, and their asking price for a return package is viewed as astronomical.

That’s why the inclusion of an opt-out clause makes no sense for the Pirates and would set a bad precedent, especially with shortstop Oneil Cruz being the next target for a contract extension. An opt-out in 2026 would only buy out one year of free agency for Reynolds, whereas the San Diego Padres signed two-time All-Star second baseman Jake Cronenworth, 29, to a seven-year, $80 million extension Saturday that buys out five years of free agency.

The opt-out clause has become popular in baseball but there is more risk than reward. The most notable opt-out is shortstop Xander Bogaerts, who exercised his with three years left on a six-year, $120 million contract with Boston to sign with San Diego (11 years, $280 million). Manny Machado threatened to do the same after this season, with six years and $180 million remaining with San Diego before the Padres gave him an 11-year, $350 million deal.

On the flip side, St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado opted in with five years and $144 million remaining on a nine-year, $275 million contract (signed with the Colorado Rockies) after winning a division title for the first time in his 10-year career.

No wonder Reynolds wants long-term security with the option to re-evaluate his contract halfway through the deal, given the game’s escalating salaries. He’s only willing to go so far on a team-friendly deal, especially when the Pirates have finished in last place or tied for last in the NL Central in each of his first four seasons.

It’s a positive sign that the Pirates, a year after signing third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes to a franchise-record $70 million deal over eight years, have shown a willingness to sign another player to a long-term contract. Even if it’s only on their terms.

That the Pirates are talking about $100 million contracts instead of 100-loss seasons should be seen as progress. But if their rebuilding plan involves Reynolds, they would be better off paying closer to his asking price than insert a clause that allows him to leave when they are contenders.

It’s important for the Pirates to put their foot back on the gas and get a deal done before the home opener, if they want to find a way to make it work with Reynolds.